NASCAR Odds, Darlington: Can playoff outcast win again? Chase Elliott?

Remember when NASCAR’s playoff races were always won by playoff drivers?

Well, almost always.

Then came 2022 and Darlington, the first race of the playoffs, and Erik Jones properly tamed the Lady in Black, to the surprise of nearly everyone.

OK, these things happen.

Then Bubba Wallace won the next week in Kansas. Two straight non-playoff racers winning a playoff race? Crazy stuff.

Guess what. That’s right, the next week at Bristol it was Chris Buescher completing the outsiders’ hat trick. These days, a Buescher win wouldn’t shock anyone, but back then it turned our heads.

Now, here we are a year later, on the cusp of the 2023 Cup Series playoffs, and with a $100 bill heating up in the hip pocket, you have to wonder which playoff outcast might do it again Sunday night in the Southern 500. 

The longest of odds rarely pay off at Darlington, as we’ll discuss later, but this year, it seems, we have the best-ever crop of non-playoff drivers, cars and teams. 

Yep, lookin’ at you, Chase Elliott. But it’s not just Billy Clyde. No one would fall off the bar stool if, say, Alex Bowman, Daniel Suarez or Ty Gibbs popped a bottle of champagne in the coming weeks. 

Hell, at Talladega next month, we almost expect to see an Aric Almirola, Harrison Burton or Austin Cindric in the lead pack late in the day. 

But first things first: Darlington, which was the first-of-its-kind speedway when it opened in 1950. It was an important addition to stock-car racing back then, and its importance remains to this day, but this time for more material reasons. There’s a championship run brewing.

And money to be made. Let’s roll …

Why is Ross Chastain here?

Martin Truex Jr. +500; Kyle Larson +500; William Byron +800; Denny Hamlin +800; Ross Chastain +900

Ross Chastain? With the exception of one third-place run two years ago, he’s always been horrible at Darlington. With the exception of a seventh at Michigan four weeks ago, he’s been horrible everywhere most of the summer.

Kevin Harvick on good terms with Lady in Black

Christopher Bell +1,000; Kyle Busch +1,200; Tyler Reddick +1,300; Kevin Harvick +1,500; Chris Buescher +1,500

Harvick is never anything but good (or excellent) at Darlington. This is his latest best chance to post a win before retirement.

Wow, Chase Elliott tumbles

Brad Keselowski +1,600; Chase Elliott +1,700; Ryan Blaney +1,800; Joey Logano +1,800

Hey, there’s Chase! Was wondering how far down the board he’d slip when the “desperate for a win” factor went away.  

Bubba Wallace joins Erik Jones at +2800

Erik Jones +2,800; Bubba Wallace +2,800; Ty Gibbs +3,500; Daniel Suarez +5,500; Alex Bowman +5,500

Erik Jones shouldn’t be this high, and wouldn’t be if he hadn’t won this race a year ago, which nowadays seems like decades ago for the 43 team.

Ryan Preece back in the saddle

Michael McDowell +8,000; Ricky Stenhouse +10,000; Aric Almirola +25,000; Ryan Preece +40,000; Harrison Burton +40,000; Todd Gilliland +80,000

Ryan Preece made this week's entry list following his crazy Daytona wreck. Congrats, now you get Darlington!

Also, along with these longshots, you also have three ultimate longshots at +100,000: JJ Yeley, Ty Dillon and BJ McLeod. I bring this up to suggest you save your money. Darlington just doesn’t do L-O-N-G shots.

Since Johnny Mantz made the first Southern 500 his lone NASCAR win (he only ran 12 career races, by the way), by my count only three one-hit wonders have won it: Larry Frank in ’62, Lake Speed in ’88, Regan Smith in ’11.

The Props

● Truex is -165 for a top five. Goodness. Would have to bet our $50 allotment to earn $30.

● Buescher is +400 for a top three and +185 for top five. That might be easy money.

● Harvick is +400 and +185. See Buescher.

● Larson +100 vs. Truex -135. Kyle has to find fifth gear eventually, right?

● Elliot +100 vs. Keselowski -115. Didn't think we'd see numbers like that this year.

● Chastain -135 vs. Reddick +105. Seriously?

● Chevy +115, Toyota +125, Ford +300 among the manufacturers.

Last Week

Corey LaJoie got another quality plate-race finish at Daytona — a 10th. Unfortunately, my $50 prop bet needed him to really overachieve and finish third or better. 

For the win, I came up 24 places short with Tyler Reddick. 

We swing big at plate-races and, yes, often miss big.

This Week

Gonna go small with the prop — put my $50 on Reddick to beat Chastain head-to-head, because right about now Uncle Ed’s Buick could outrun Ross the Boss. It’s just a net win of $52.50, but again, you do driver-vs-driver props because you only have to beat one guy.  Easy money in this case.

For the win … hmmm.

You want to take a shot on Harvick because of his literal track record at Darlington, but I’m not feeling it. As for the favorite, Truex, not feeling that either because he’s had a run of crap luck at Darlington in recent starts.

If Buescher wins again, you’d feel stupid for passing on him.

But when you combine summertime consistency and a good Darlington history, it’s hard to ignore Denny Hamlin. So I won’t. He’d pay $400 on a $50 wager.

Fifty on Reddick to beat Chastain, $50 on Hamlin to beat everybody.