NASCAR playoff picks: Martin Truex? Kyle Larson? Nope, here's our guys
It took nearly seven months, thousands of miles, and plenty of pit stops — both planned and unplanned — but NASCAR's wagon train has traversed all manner of wonderful American countryside and arrived at Playoff Pass.
Ten races, 16 drivers, and their assorted teams — each its own little corporation, really, with a lot on the line for each. Every three weeks for the next nine weeks, we'll lose a few from championship competition, though they'll continue to tag along and battle for smaller-picture glory, in the form of checkered flags.
After nine weeks, we'll be down to four drivers and one race, at Phoenix Raceway, and don't worry, the desert fever will have broken by then and no one will melt.
The Daytona Beach News-Journal has a couple of guys — Ryan Pritt and Ken Willis — who pay just attention to these things, they think they can tell us who'll survive the three-race cuts and reach Phoenix with championship hopes alive.
Let's see what their crystal balls are telling us.
NASCAR playoff odds
The latest NASCAR Cup Series championship odds from DraftKings:
Round of 16: Can Bubba Wallace, Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. advance?
The tracks: Darlington, Kansas Bristol
Ken's survivors: William Byron, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace, Kevin Harvick.
Ryan's survivors: William Byron, Martin Truex Jr., Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Ross Chastain, Christopher Bell, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Ryan Blaney, Bubba Wallace, Michael McDowell
Ken black-flags: Michael McDowell, Ryan Blaney, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Ross Chastain
Ryan black-flags: Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Kevin Harvick
Ken says:Ross Chastain might be a mild surprise to some, but he’s been MIA for huge chunks of the season, including recent weeks. Blaney? That one is pure hunch.
Ryan says: Something just seems off with Kevin Harvick (see Daytona post-race interview) and while Busch and Reddick are both fast, they're also prone to disasters, which is death in a three-race shootout.
Round of 12: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Joey Logano among upset picks
The tracks: Texas, Talladega, Charlotte Roval
Ken's survivors: Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Christopher Bell, Joey Logano, Brad Keselowski, Tyler Reddick
Ryan's survivors: William Byron, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Ryan Blaney, Michael McDowell
Ken black-flags: William Byron, Kyle Larson, Bubba Wallace, Kevin Harvick
Ryan black flags: Christopher Bell, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano, Bubba Wallace
Ken says: Logano survives by winning Talladega, while Reddick wins the Roval to stay alive. Meanwhile, we lose a pair of pre-playoff favorites as it’s bye-bye Byron and see-you-later Larson.
Ryan says: Bell and Chastain have been way too mistake prone and while Logano and Wallace will be factors at Talladega, the season-saving win won't come this time. Don't be surprised to see McDowell still alive after a great set of tracks in the second round.
Round of 8: Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin safe, Chris Buescher not so much
The tracks: Las Vegas, Homestead, Martinsville.
Ken's survivors: Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Christopher Bell.
Ryan's survivors: William Byron, Martin Truex, Denny Hamlin, Ryan Blaney
Ken black-flags: Chris Buescher, Kyle Busch, Tyler Reddick, Joey Logano.
Ryan black-flags: Chris Buescher, Kyle Larson, Brad Keselowski, Michael McDowell.
Ken says: Keselowski finally wins, at Martinsville, and knocks out teammate Buescher with the victory.
Ryan says: Blaney atones for a near-miss at Vegas last year, Truex takes Homestead, Denny gets another clock and Byron is just good enough in all three.
Championship Round: A long shot and a long drought
The track: Phoenix.
Ken's champion: Brad Keselowski.
Ryan's champion: Denny Hamlin
Ken says: Remember the giant Miller Lite draft Kez pounded after winning the championship 11 years earlier? With Castrol on the car at Phoenix, he'll settle for water.
Ryan says: Hamlin edges upset-minded Blaney, breaking through and giving that "best-with-no-championship" title belt back to Mark Martin, once and for all.
