NASCAR prop bets, predictions for Bristol: Cup Series at Food City 500
Bristol Motor Speedway is the site of this weekend’s NASCAR Cup Series race, and you can watch the action on FOX on Sunday at 3:30 p.m. ET.
It was a dominant performance for Joe Gibbs Racing last week, and Christopher Bell capped it off with the victory at Phoenix. The Toyotas should have plenty of speed in Bristol, Tenn.
After three straight Bristol Dirt races, the 0.5-mile short track is back on the concrete layout. It’ll be the first time in the Next-Gen era the Cup Series runs a full day race at Bristol. Could that lead to unexpected results?
Below are my favorite prop bets for Sunday’s Cup Series race at Bristol.
Top props bets for Food City 500
Driver matchup: Corey Lajoie over Austin Dillon (-112, FanDuel)
It’s been a brutal start to the season for Dillon. Through four races, he’s been involved in a wreck three times within the first 10 laps. He hopes to turn his luck at Bristol, but I like Lajoie to finish ahead of the No. 3 car.
Lajoie is off to a solid start in 2024, scoring a pair of top-15 finishes. He consistently ran in the top 10 at Las Vegas before a late crash ruined his day. He likely won’t run that well at Bristol, but I don’t think it’ll take a great finish to beat Dillon.
Lajoie has been steadily improving at Bristol. He finished 15th in the 2022 race and led 48 laps last year. Dillon has finished outside the top 15 in his last two Bristol races.
A top-15 finish should be enough for Lajoie to win this driver matchup. With Dillon’s 2024 luck, it might only take a top-25 finish.
Group winner: Ty Gibbs (+260, FanDuel)
Most NASCAR fans expected Gibbs to score his first career victory in his second full-time season. Four races into 2024, and we could be looking at a Championship dark horse.
Gibbs has the best average finish in the Cup Series this season and enters Sunday’s race with back-to-back top-five finishes. Last year’s Bristol race was the best performance of his Cup career.
Gibbs led 102 laps en route to a fifth-place finish. To win Group 2, he must finish ahead of Ryan Blaney (+250), Chris Buescher (+340) and Tyler Reddick (+200). I’ll talk more about Blaney and Buescher in my next pick, but Reddick has never been great at Bristol.
Gibbs is a trendy pick to capture his first career win on Sunday. There’s no reason he should have the third-best odds in this group.
Top Ford car: Brad Keselowski (+300, DraftKings)
Keselowski bounced back from a tough start to the season with a fourth-place finish at Phoenix. Bristol has long been one of his best tracks, and he should compete for another top-five finish.
Before last year’s Bristol race, Keselowski had led 10-plus laps in six straight races at the track. He was in prime position to win the 2022 race before a flat tire ruined his finish.
Blaney and Buescher are the favorites over Keselowski. Blaney has performed great at Bristol, but his recent numbers aren’t impressive. It’s the opposite for Buescher, as he’s finished in the top five in the last two Bristol races.
Keselowski had the better car in the 2022 race, but Buescher used pit strategy to score the win. On pure speed, I like Keselowski to lead the Ford camp on Sunday.
Cars to finish on the lead lap: Fewer than 12.5 (+100, Caesars)
Bristol Motor Speedway is the smallest track on the Cup Series schedule. The 0.5-mile oval features a 500-lap race, and it’s easy to fall a lap down.
This prop has hit in both Bristol races in the Next Gen era. It hit on the number with 12 cars on the lead lap in the 2022 race, while only 10 finished on the lead lap in last year’s race.
A long green flag run and fewer cautions are key to hitting this bet. That was the case in last year’s race, but the 2022 Bristol race featured 11 cautions, while the longest green flag run was 76 laps.
Denny Hamlin, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are the overwhelming favorites on Sunday. If one of them puts on a dominant performance, many cars won’t be on the lead lap at the finish.
