National Championship Preview: Michigan vs. Washington
Jd Pickell And Andy Staples On Why The First Quarter, Opening Pace Is Big For Michigan, Washington In College Football Playoff Championship Game | 01.07.24
The 2023 college football season will officially come to a close on Monday night. In the house that C.J. Stroud is currently building in Houston, we will see No. 1 Michigan lock horns with No. 2 Washington in a contest that will be a Big Ten conference game beginning in 2024.
The winner will become a first-time national champion in the Bowl Championship Series/College Football Playoff era. This game will mark the end of the plus-one chapter with the sport moving to a 12-team tournament model in 2024. Things are changing all around us. Before all of the craziness of the offseason arrives, let’s take a look at what’s at stake in Houston.
KSR’s College Football Cheat Sheet has returned for one final ride before closing the book on the 2023 season.
Michigan’s Coronation
Michigan split a national title with Nebraska in 1997 after running the table in year three under Lloyd Carr and knocking off Washington State in the Rose Bowl. Charles Woodson won the Heisman Trophy, and the Wolverines were quite possibly the best damn team in the land.
Michigan did not have a Heisman Trophy winner in 2023, but there is a case to be made that Jim Harbaugh‘s ninth team in Ann Arbor is perhaps the best in program history with a 14-0 record with head-to-head wins over Ohio State and Alabama.
This has been a long push uphill for the Wolverines.
After falling to 0-5 against Ohio State and fielding a poor team during the COVID-19 season in 2020, Harbaugh took a pay cut and appeared to be on the hot seat. Since that happened, the Wolverines are 39-3 with three Big Ten title, three College Football Playoff appearances, and a 3-0 record against Ohio State. The last thing left to do is win a national title.
Rumors circulating that Monday night could be Harbaugh’s final game at Michigan with a move back to the NFL very possible. The Wolverines have an NFL quarterback, an all-time tailback, an elite defense, and potentially 20 draft picks on the roster. This program has been building towards this moment.
Now they just need to finish.
Can Washington win a title with this defense?
Washington is a juggernaut on offense. There is no denying that. Head coach Kalen DeBoer and offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb have built a wagon with former Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. holding the sticks. The Huskies rank inside the top 10 in success rate (No. 5), yards per play (No. 5), EPA/play (No. 6), and points per drive (No. 6). This is an elite offensive unit.
The defense in Seattle is not.
Washington’s defense currently ranks No. 80 in EPA/play and No. 108 in success rate. The Huskies are barely in the top 50 in ESPN’s SP+ rankings. This unit will clearly be the weakest on the field on Monday night.
This game could come down to whether Washington’s porous run defense (No. 126 in rushing success rate) has any success at all of slowing down Michigan’s power run game.
Gambling Corner
- FanDuel Odds: Michigan (-4.5) with a total of 55.5
- Moneyline: Michigan (-215), Washington (+176)
- Offensive MVP: J.J. McCarthy (+160), Michael Penix Jr. (+230), Blake Corum (+360), Rome Odunze (11/1), Roman Wilson (12/1), Donovan Edwards (20/1)
- Props: Michael Penix Jr. passing yards (292.5), J.J. McCarthy passing yards (201.5), Blake Corum rushing yards (102.5), Rome Odunze receiving yards (89.5)
The Pick
Michigan is great on offense and defense. Washington has the best and worst unit in the game. Teams with defenses this bad do not win national championships. I believe we will see Washington’s dream season end on Monday night.
The Wolverines have a huge advantage in the trenches, have aced adversity moments all season, and are the most well-rounded team in college football all season. Blake Corum has a big day on the ground and Penix throws for a lot of yards due to the game script. Michigan jumps out to a lead early and leans on Washington throughout the game. The Wolverines run away from the Huskies late.
Do not be surprised if this one plays out like the last Big Ten vs. Pac-12 national title game when Ohio State rushed for 296 yards in a 42-20 win over Oregon in first ever College Football Playoff. Harbaugh delivers Michigan a national title.
Prediction: Michigan 38, Washington 21
