Washington: CFP national championship picks and predictions

By the end of Monday night, college football will have a new champion, and it’ll be a program we haven’t seen at the top of the sport in a long time.

Michigan hasn’t been the national champ since 1997, and Washington’s only claim to the title came in 1991. So, however this showdown ends, one team’s fanbase is going to be celebrating something that’s been a long time coming.

For the neutral among us, we just want to see a good game — unlike last year’s 65-7 massacre between Georgia and TCU — and maybe a few of our bets to hit. Nothing too crazy.

Thankfully, this game sets up to give us just that. And hopefully BetFTW can help with the betting part. Our brilliant staff gave their favorite picks against the spread here — overwhelmingly in favor of Washington. So, I’ll try to expand further with my favorite picks, including a few prop bets.

I’m siding with my colleagues on this one. Washington’s offense is simply too explosive to give away this many points. I know Michigan’s defense is awesome, front to back, but I’m convinced the Huskies offensive line can protect Michael Penix Jr. against anyone.

That doesn’t mean Penix is going to carve up the Wolverines like he has so many other defenses. They’re too good for that. But it does mean he won’t need to make rash decisions under pressure. Considering the playmakers he has on the outside, Washington should be able to generate enough offense to keep things close.

I wouldn’t actually bet these odds as a solo shot, but yeah, after all the nice things I said about Washington, I’m still picking the Wolverines to win. I said I thought it would be a good game, right? Well, a margin of less than six points qualifies, and that’s also why I’m picking Michigan to win. Say what you want about Jim Harbaugh, but he’s one of the very best coaches in all of football. So, when it comes to picking a team to pull out a tight game under this type of pressure, I’m rolling with the team he’s coaching.

That’s before we get to Michigan’s ability to close games. Whether it’s giving the ball to Blake Corum to finish off a game or the defense coming up with a timely stop, I trust the Wolverines to close a little more than Washington. That said, they have to get off to a fast start. I don’t love Michigan’s chances nearly as much if they have to play from behind.

I came into this prediction expecting to pick the under on the total, and I was pretty sure that would be my favorite bet. But the more I thought about how much Michigan’s rushing attack opened up things for J.J. McCarthy against Alabama, the more I was convinced Michigan could crack 30 points.

Washington’s defense isn’t a slouch by any means, but it did give up 500 yards of offense to Texas in the Sugar Bowl, with 180 of those yards and three scores coming on the ground. That’s music to Michigan’s ears. And I already mentioned how I think Washington’s offense will find a way to generate some points. So, regardless of whether the Huskies get ahead early or fall behind, I think both scenarios play for this game to just barely crack the total. I’m predicting a 30-28 final score.

OK, so to get the most obvious player prop out the way, I think Blake Corum is going to score a touchdown. Surprise, surprise. But at -400, that is not a bet I’d actually make. Bumping it up a two-touchdown game for +100 odds is much more enticing, especially with me predicting 30 for Michigan. Besides, Corum has multiple scores in six straight games.

For a longer anytime scorer bet, I think Washington receiver Rome Odunze is your man. He has the size to fend off Michigan’s tough defensive backs and though he hasn’t scored in postseason play since recording six touchdowns in three games to finish the regular season, it’s not for a lack of targets. Odunze has over 100 yards in five straight games. It’s only a matter of time before he catches one in the end zone.

I also like for both quarterbacks to go over their passing yards totals. Penix will go over 297 because that’s the only way I see Washington effectively moving the ball on Michigan. McCarthy will go over 202 yards because I don’t think Michigan will ever get a comfortable enough lead to where it can just abandon the pass. Penix over 1.5 passing touchdowns is another bet I like at -185 odds.