National Championship: Washington vs Michigan odds, picks, prediction: Back the Wolverines first half spread
The stage is set for the College Football Playoff National Championship as the top-seeded Michigan Wolverines take on the second-seeded Washington Huskies on Monday night.
This will be the 10th and final year of the four-team playoff system, with the CFP expanding to 12 teams next season.
Reviewing the previous nine championship games, results have been pretty balanced when you have multiple teams in a playoff format.
For example, this will be the fourth matchup between a No. 1 and No. 2 seed. We’ve also had four matchups between a No. 1 and No. 3 seed.
The No. 1 and No. 2 seeds each have three wins since the four-team format started in 2015. Surprisingly, the No. 4 seed also had two wins in the championship game, while the No. 3 seed had one win.
Thus, the unpredictable nature of these championship games adds a ton of complexity to our handicap. In this preview, I’ll share why a first-half wager might offer the best value in tonight’s matchup.
This matchup not only represents the two best teams in the country, but it also involves arguably the best offense going up against the best defense.
The Huskies represent the offensive part of the equation. They rank third in the critical metric of yards per play with an average of 7.2, per TeamRankings.
With dynamic receivers and a big-armed quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., the Huskies rely significantly on their passing game, ranking 10th with a pass-play rate of 57.78%.
In the CFP semifinals against Texas, Penix Jr. threw for 430 passing yards on 39 attempts.
Although the Huskies rushed for 102 yards, 31 came from Penix at the quarterback position. Moreover, Huskies starting running back Dillon Johnson managed just 49 yards on 2.3 yards per carry.
Johnson needed help to get off the field after suffering a foot and knee injury in the final minute of the fourth quarter against the Longhorns. While he’s available to play in the championship game, he won’t be close to 100%.
Thus, even with Michigan daring opponents to run the ball, I’m not sure this Huskies team will be ready to take advantage.
The defense leads the way for the Wolverines as they rank first in both points per play allowed (.172) and opponent yards per game (243.1). In the Rose Bowl, the Wolverines took away Alabama’s passing game, limiting the Crimson Tide to just 116 yards through the air.
By thwarting Alabama’s passing attack, the Wolverines forced Nick Saban’s team to be more methodical in its offense and play the game at a pace more suitable to their liking.
Michigan was almost happy to concede the 172 rushing yards to Alabama if it meant avoiding those explosive chunk yardage plays. But now, with Johnson banged up for Washington, the Huskies are unlikely to have anywhere near the success Alabama had running the ball.
The Wolverines can almost entirely sell out to stop the Huskies’ passing offense.
Michigan’s advanced defensive metrics are pretty scary, given that it ranks third in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play against the pass and sixth when using the same metric against the run.
Thus, it wouldn’t surprise me if the Huskies took a little while to get going and adjust to this Michigan defense.
The play that makes the most sense here is to back Michigan in the first half and lay the 2.5 points. Michigan will undoubtedly be the best defense Penix faces this season, and Washington’s offense could look a bit one-dimensional if it struggles in the running game.
Such a scenario would play right into the hands of the Wolverines when it comes to pressuring the quarterback and defending the secondary.
However, while I expect the Huskies to make some adjustments, we might not see those changes until the second half.
If you want to get nuts, consider parlaying a half-time wager on Michigan and full-time on Washington, priced at +750. While I’m very much intrigued by those longer odds, most of my action will land on the Wolverines in the first half.
Pick: Michigan 1H -2.5 (-118 at DraftKings)
Longshot: HT / FT: Michigan / Washington (+750 at PointsBet)
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