NBA: Best bets and analysis for Monday, January 22nd
Welcome to my daily column of NBA best bets! Here at VSiN we have a ton of NBA content daily, so make sure to keep tabs on Zach Cohen who is doing an excellent job handicapping the league on a daily basis. Also, , our daily NBA betting podcast, wherever you get your podcasts!
The two games since the win over Golden State have not gone well for Memphis. It lost both by a combined 44 points, and failed to cover each of them. It is probably smart to continue to fade this team – or at the very least, not bet on them – but I am not a smart man.
First and foremost, are we sure the gap between these two teams is this wide?
Toronto is 1-4 ATS in its last five games, and more importantly it is 1-6 SU/3-4 ATS in its last seven. It went on a solid run after the trade deadline, but the reality is that since the trade the team is 26th in non-garbage time defensive efficiency (121.2). The Raptors have been outscored by 2.3 points per 100 possessions over that time.
Sure, the team is 6-5 ATS since the acquisition of RJ Barrett and Immanuel Quickley, but they closed as underdogs in every game but one! Now bettors are expecting that team to not only win, but win by margin?
Memphis still has some quality traits. They play solid defense. Jaren Jackson Jr. is still playing, Vince Williams can defend the point of attack, and Jacob Gilyard is a scrappy steal machine. The Grizzlies will also be willing to run, and they have pieces that can have success against this shoddy defense. GG Jackson has been quiet the last two games, but can certainly score some against this defense.
This play is just about the number. This was a game that I made just over 4.5 in favor of Toronto. Now that we are as high as -7 across the board it is a play worth making by my measure.
Play: Grizzlies (+7) – Playable to (+6)
Picking off scheduling spots is a big part of handicapping the NBA season, and we have another opportunity tonight in Dallas.
Boston comes into this contest on the second leg of a back-to-back. It is also the team’s third game in four nights, and their eighth in 13 days. The latter statistic is not as damning, but it’s worth pointing out just how active the Celtics have been. Meanwhile, the Mavericks have not played for four days. Dallas last hit the floor on Wednesday when it lost to Los Angeles. There are not many times bettors will see this big of a rest advantage, and it’s worth jumping on.
The time off has allowed the Mavericks to get healthier as well. Only Dante Exum (doubtful) and Seth Curry (questionable) are on the injury report tonight.
This bet is not just about the scheduling spot either. Dallas is a good team that has been underrated by the betting market. It is 23-19 ATS this season. When both Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving are on the floor Dallas averages 121.3 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time. They have positive net ratings in the possessions when either is on the floor alone, and they have decent defensive pieces to put on both Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown.
Generally the market likes to charge the team with no rest about a point on the overnight line. That is not the case here with the Celtics, and that is not a surprise given how much the market respects this team. On Friday we went against the market move in a Boston Celtics contest and it worked out. Let’s give it one more shot tonight.
Play: Mavericks ML (+130) – Playable to (+110)
Trae Young is out for the foreseeable future due to a concussion, so it would seem that all is lost for Atlanta. However, the numbers would tell us that is not the case.
In the possessions with Young off the floor the Hawks outscore their opponents by 1.3 points per 100 possessions. In fact, they have a -3.1 net rating when Young is on the floor! Dejounte Murray is still a member of this team, and in the possessions with just him Atlanta has outscored their opponents by 2.2 points per 100 possessions. The lineups with both Murray and Jalen Johnson have a staggering +7.4 net rating!
The Hawks are the worst cover team in the league at 11-31 ATS (26.2%), and they are 7-14 ATS away from home. But, considering the positive returns without Young on the floor, is it too much to ask that they stay inside the number against an overrated opponent that plays poor defense?
Sacramento is just 13-8 SU/9-12 ATS at home this season. Opponents average 118.0 points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, and they have the fifth-worst halfcourt defensive rating (102.7). Should we really trust the Kings to win by this margin considering how poorly they defend?
This line is now as high as 8.5 this morning, and it’s not something I am buying. We have numbers that tell us Atlanta can play well without Young on the floor. They become a slightly better defensive team in those possessions, and they have a lead guard in Murray who can guide the offense. I believe the market is overvaluing Young’s worth to the spread here, and will act accordingly.
Play: Hawks (+8.5) – Playable to (+7.5)
