NBA Best Bets for Friday: Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds, picks, predictions, props & DFS lineup

An exciting stretch of NBA basketball continues tonight, with a Western Conference battle between the top-seeded Nuggets and the No. 2-seeded Grizzlies concluding a 10-game Friday night slate (10 p.m. ET, ESPN). Can Ja Morant and the villainous Grizz become just the fifth team to defeat reigning two-time MVP Nikola Jokic and the Nugs at Ball Arena this season? Let's break down the BetMGM odds, best bets, predictions, player props, and our DraftKings lineup for this pivotal game.

Most of the parity-driven west has been tightly contested for the majority of the 2022 season, with seeds No. 4 through 11 all within three games of each other. However, the top-seeded Nuggets (44-19) have sat comfortably by themselves for basically the entire campaign, while the Grizzlies (38-23) find themselves securely in the two-seed, exactly where they finished last year.

However, the west saw some major shakeups leading up to the February trade deadline, with Kyrie Irving joining Luka Doncic in Dallas and Kevin Durant landing alongside Chris Paul and Devin Booker in Phoenix. The playoff push could be a mad dash to the finish line, with the Suns aiming to close the five-game gap behind Memphis and the Mavs only a couple games shy of home-court in the first round of the postseason. Every game within this past quarter-part of the campaign matters, so this battle between the current class of the West should be one of the games of the week.

Let's dive into the betting odds for Nuggets vs. Grizzlies, uncover some trends, and make our best bets and predictions.

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies odds, picks, predictions

Oddsmakers clearly trust the home-road splits between these squads. Giving the No. 2 team in the West 5.5 points at this stage in the season is novel on its face, but giving 5.5 points to a Memphis team that just beat Denver 112-94 on Feb. 25? That seems historically rare. 

Denver knows a little something about historically rare. Mike Malone's squad is flirting with a .900 winning percentage at home on the season, a feat that only a little over 30 squads have ever done in the 76-year history of the NBA. With the Grizzlies suffering mightily in away games — 12-18 straight up and an unfathomable 0-9 as road underdogs — the sportsbooks weren't about to give Denver an easy cover. 

Of course, -5.5 might still be an easy home cover for Denver. Take a look at the results of the Nuggets' past 21 games — dating back to Dec. 10 — in the Mile High atmosphere:

Coincidentally, Jokic has logged a whopping 21 of his 24 triple-doubles since Dec. 21 and just took down Western Conference Player of the Month honors for February. Denver's record when its two-time MVP records a triple-double this season: 24-0. Talk about stacking the proverbial deck with plus factors in Denver's favor. 

The only games the Nuggets have lost at home were the ones in which they take their opponents too lightly. Denver's four Ball Arena losses were to the Knicks, Pistons, Mavericks, and Thunder. Those teams combined records before mounting upsets on the Nugs' home floor was 44-57. 

Considering Ja Morant and the Grizzlies punched Denver in the mouth last weekend — and Memphis has strung together three straight wins and won six of their past 10 — Mike Malone's squad will not take Memphis lightly. Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have flashed moments of offensive brilliance over the past few games, and veteran three-and-D specialists Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Bruce Brown have come up huge for this squad when it needs them the most. 

One of the biggest reasons to pick Denver to hold court tonight is Aaron Gordon, who sat five games out with a rib injury (including the game against Memphis last Saturday) and returned to the floor for the Nuggets' last game on Tuesday. A borderline All-Star this season, Gordon has been instrumental to Denver's success all season. His absence was the main reason the Grizz outscored the Nugs in the paint 60-42 last weekend. The strong, athletic veteran offers much-needed toughness and physicality, two factors necessary to prevail over a scrappy Memphis squad anchored defensively by DPOY frontrunner Jaren Jackson Jr. 

Another reason the Grizzlies emerged victorious last weekend? They shot better from all three scoring levels:

Don't expect a similarly sharp contrast in shooting tonight (unless it's Denver out-shooting Memphis). The Nuggets rank first in the NBA in field goal percentage (51) and field-goal percentage at home (52.6). Memphis ranks 18th in shooting (46.9 percent) and fares even worse on the road (46). Denver also ranks first in three-point shooting (39.2) and maintains an even better mark at Ball Arena (41), while the Grizzlies rank 24th (34.2). Oh, and Memphis ranks dead-last in free-throw percentage (72.3), so don't expect many more 87.5-percent nights for them from the charity stripe. 

Don't let recency bias get the best of you here. Sure, the Grizz are scrappy, tough driving the lane and attacking the glass, and play strong defense, but Denver has the shooting, veteran basketball IQ, home-court advantage, and the best all-around player in the world. The Nugs are also 7-2 with two or three days off, best in the NBA. Buy some points or bet their moneyline if you want extra insurance, but we're confident in the Nuggets landing their 29th home victory with relative ease tonight. 

Best Bet: Nuggets -190 or -2.5 (-150)

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: Best player prop bets

Nikola Jokic OVER 36.5 points + rebounds (-110)

Jokic knows he must step up on the biggest stages, and he's well aware that he should have been more aggressive when these squads met last weekend. The Nuggets had just come off a tough 115-109 win in Cleveland two nights prior, a game in which the MVP was relying on Vlatko Cančar, Jeff Green, and Thomas Bryant to help combat Cavs twin towers Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. The big guy logged a 24/18/13 triple-double in that win, so he must have been a bit fatigued still when Denver traveled to Memphis two days later. He still put up 15 and 13, but we know he's capable of much more in a big game. Having not played since Tuesday, expect the four-time All-NBA selection to go hard this evening and help the Nugs notch a gritty win. 

Ja Morant fails to record a double-double (-140)

This seems like great value considering Morant isn't exactly a walking double-double. He has recorded just one since Feb. 2, a 39/9/10 effort against the Lakers on Tuesday. This will be the Grizzlies' third game in four nights, and their second-consecutive road tilt (they were in Houston on Wednesday for the tail-end of a back-to-back). Morant has just two double-doubles on the road since Dec. 5, and four road double-doubles all season. Denver will play the two-time All-Star tough, just like they did last weekend when he committed four turnovers and finished with a tough 23 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. 

Nuggets vs. Grizzlies: DFS lineups

Lineup assembled in DraftKings Showdown Mode. Six spots, $50,000 limit.

It never even crossed our mind to not select Jokic, the top commodity in all of fantasyland. However, by not paying 1.5-times the price to put him in our Captain spot, we're able to afford him as well as two other studs. Murray has been hot as of late, and he's a worthy Captain choice with a 37-point average and 60-point ceiling. He's bested 40 DK points in 12 of his past 17 games and averaged 55.5 since Feb. 1. Jokic and Morant are the no-brainers — two regular 50 DK point contributors who shine when the prime-time lights are the brightest. Our other three players might suggest this is a "stars-and-scrubs" build, but we beg to differ. Tillman and Bryant scrap down low, fighting for rebounds and interior buckets, while Jones remains one of the best and most efficient backup point guards in the NBA. This lineup could make some noise in DFS circles this evening.