NBA Best Bets for Thursday: Suns vs. Magic odds, picks, predictions, & props

With 85 percent of the 2022-23 NBA season in the books, every team finds themselves either winning or losing with purpose right now. Tonight's nationally televised game between Devin Booker and the Suns (37-32) and Paolo Banchero and the Magic (28-41) is a textbook example of teams moving in opposite directions. Let's break down the odds for this lopsided interconference tilt and how you should approach it from a betting perspective. 

These two organizations have one thing in common: Tjeu are both among the 11 active teams to have never won an NBA championship. Phoenix thought it could get over the hump and finally win one until midseason trade acquisition Kevin Durant went down with a bad ankle sprain during pregame workouts last week. Womp womp. With Mikal Bridges now in Brooklyn thanks to the blockbuster trade, Monty Williams' Suns squad is relying heavily on Booker's pure scoring, DeAndre Ayton's low-post banging, and Chris Paul's playmaking.

The Magic, meanwhile, are playing the long game. Their last-second decision to lock in Banchero as their No. 1 pick in the 2022 draft has paid off handsomely. He's been head-and-shoulders above everyone else in the draft class, and he's a whopping -10000 on BetMGM to win Rookie of the Year. Orlando's faith in 2017 1st overall pick Markelle Fultz since his banishment from Philly has been rewarded, too. Fultz has blossomed into an across-the-board contributor who opens up the floor for Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Wendell Carter Jr. 

If there was an award for "Most Promising Bad Team," Jamahl Mosley's Magic might win it. They play tough, shoot well from distance, and have plenty of size between WCJ, Bol Bol, and Moe Wagner. Cole Anthony, Jalen Suggs, and Gary Harris have low-key been three of the better reserves in the East, but Orlando's collective play can get sloppy thanks to some raw skill sets. The Magic rank in the bottom seven in the league in scoring, assists, turnovers, threes, and three-pointers allowed. 

That all plays right into Phoenix's hands. The Suns allow the fourth-fewest points in the Association, rank fourth in assists, and sixth in three-point percentage, and they typically take good care of the ball when CP3 is playing. So, let's take this knowledge and dive into the odds for this lopsided battle, and get to our best bets and predictions.

Suns vs. Magic odds, picks, predictions

The Magic have surprised plenty of teams against the spread this season, going 36-32-1 ATS with a 56.7-percent cover rate on the road. Oddsmakers were never going to give them 10 points, even against a top-four Western Conference team on the road. Phoenix is 22-12 at home but missing its best player, so while -7.5 seems a bit modest, it's probably just right. 

Of course, "just right" is not exactly what bettors are looking for. They're looking for lines and spreads that seem way off. With that said, we want to look for some other angle within this matchup to attack from a betting standpoint. Today, that's the total of 228.5. 

The UNDER seems like a fantastic play. While Phoenix plays its best basketball at home, that doesn't mean that it scores more points. In fact, the Suns score just 110.2 points per home game according to Basketball Reference. In general, their scoring is not exactly through the roof this season. Only 10 teams score fewer points per game than Phoenix's 113.2. 

The Suns also surrender the sixth-fewest points at home (110.6) and fourth-fewest points in general (111.4), and they should be a miserable road test for the young, often-unfocused Magic. We like this one to be wrapped up well before the midway point of the fourth quarter, but we don't trust stuff like garbage-time scoring or silly-season stats, so we're going UNDER and calling it a night. 

Best Bet: UNDER 228.5 points (-110)

Best player prop bet for Suns vs. Magic: Franz Wagner OVER 16.5 points (+100)

We love the plus odds we're getting with Wagner here, as he's one of the better all-around scorers on this Magic team. The 2022 All-Rookie is averaging 17.3 points per game on the road, and he's dropped 18 in two of Orlando's past five games and scored exactly 17 the last time these teams met. With Mikal Bridges no longer holding down the perimeter for Monty Williams and Kevin Durant sidelined with the ankle injury, Franz should be able to get to his spots outside the arc and also get to the line with his underrated ability to penetrate to the hoop.