NBA Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (4/8)

For the season, my NBA Best Bets have gone 45-22-2 ATS. Let’s check out my favorites for today!

Saturday’s Best NBA Bet

Minnesota Timberwolves at San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs’ season is long over. They’ve been firmly entrenched as Victor Wembanyama hopefuls since the onset of the season, and secured top draft lottery odds some time ago. In contrast, the Wolves are fighting every game for postseason positioning, and have a sliver of a chance of escaping the play-in were they to win their final two games of the season. Nevertheless, the circumstances/ importance of this game for Minnesota does not necessarily give them an edge on the court.

Minnesota is no doubt the better team, and they are generally worthy of being double-digit favorites. However, the thing about the Wolves is that they tend to play to the level of their competition.

Chris Finch’s squad has some noteworthy wins on their recent resume (at Golden State and at Sacramento stand out of late), but they also own some of the worst losses in the NBA on their card. Look no further than this past Sunday: the Timberwolves hosted Portland as -19.5 point favorites, a crucial game for the home team, and lost the game outright. The team has also dropped games to Houston and Orlando, as well as Washington, Charlotte, and Detroit each twice– Oh, and versus these same Spurs way back in October.

I don’t mean for the basis of my argument to simply be Minnesota’s record against lesser teams, but their resume against such teams is compelling. At this point, and especially so after their most recent loss to Portland, it is an undisputed fact that the Wolves keep their foot off of the gas when they know they should win. Perhaps them knowing how crucial each waning win is lights a fire in them but, in that same vein, they may be looking ahead to a far more crucial game against New Orleans on Sunday.

Let’s also talk about the Spurs for a moment. San Antonio will be without some of their best players in Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan, but they’ve been without them for some time now, and their replacements have been adequate enough. The team still has strong enough depth to keep things frisky as a big underdog, as exhibited clearly by their outright win in Sacramento as +16 point underdogs last week.

This is far form my favorite play of the season, but this number is far too steep given the damning reputation of the Wolves. Back the Spurs to at least keep it a game in their home finale, and hope that Minnesota is looking ahead to a crucial battle with the Pelicans.