NBA Finals Game 4 Odds & Lines: Denver Nuggets vs. Miami Heat

The NBA Finals rage on Friday night in Miami as the Nuggets seek to extend their series advantage over the Heat. 

Denver, on the heels of their first postseason home loss in Game 2, delivered a masterclass in Game 3 to reclaim the series lead. Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray produced 30-point triple-doubles in a 15-point win for the visitors. 

Now, Denver will look to build a series cushion against a Heat side that has dropped three straight playoff games on their home court. 

For Game 4, the Nuggets are three-and-a-half-point favorites, with the total set at 210.5 points. Those interested in the Heat can take the points or +140 on the moneyline. 

NBA Finals Game 4 Prediction, Best Bet

Denver Nuggets Team Total Over 106.5 Points (-125) – BetMGM

Whereas the Heat offense has proved much more inconsistent, Denver’s offense has steadily improved in the series.

Head coach Mike Malone’s squad averages 107 points per game and has cleared this benchmark in two straight games. Expand the sample to include two regular season games between these sides and bettors will find the Nuggets have cleared this number in four of five matchups.

Put simply, Denver is just a bad matchup for a Heat defense that ranked eighth in adjusted defensive rating for the regular season, per dunksandthrees.com. Where the Nuggets excel is around the rim—they finished third in rim shooting percentage during the regular season, again according to dunksandthrees.com. 

Even though Miami owns an above-average defensive unit, they struggle to defend the paint. During the regular season, Miami ranked 27th in rim shooting percentage against. 

Sample the 41 regular and postseason games where the Heat played against a top-10 rim percentage offense, and bettors should know opponents are 27-14 (66%) to the over of this number.

Worse for the Heat is that the Nuggets appear to have figured out that gap in the Heat’s defensive structure. Game 3 saw the visitors attempt only 18 three-pointers compared to 27 and 28 in Games 1 and 2, respectively. 

Plus, even if the Heat are hellbent on turning Nikola Jokic into a scorer rather than a playmaker, they still have few defensive options to limit the presumptive Finals MVP. In the first three games, Jokic averaged 33.3 points per game on 59% shooting. 

Based on those factors, take the Nuggets to continue their offensive production, even if they fail to cover or win the game. 

NBA Finals Game 4 Best Player Prop Bet

Jamal Murray Over 7.5 Assists (-130) – BetMGM

Murray’s scoring ability took center stage in Game 3, but don’t sleep on him as a playmaker. 

The Kentucky product has registered double-digit assists in all three games of this series, likely as a function of the lethal pick-and-roll Murray and Jokic run. Expand the sample to account for two regular season games against the Heat, and bettors will find Murray has cleared this number in four of five games against the Heat. 

Plus, it’s not as if Murray is accomplishing these stats on minimal usage. Rather, Murray owns the second-highest usage rate amongst Nuggets players, behind only Jokic. 

Denver has also established itself as an unselfish team. During the regular season, the Nuggets ranked second in assist percentage, per dunksandthrees.com. 

Conversely, Miami sits 27th in defensive assist rate allowed, meaning Denver—and Murray— should earn ample opportunities to dish out the rock.