NBA Finals Game 3 Odds & Lines: Denver Nuggets Vs. Miami Heat

As the NBA Finals shift to Miami, all is to play for in Game 3 with the Heat and Nuggets tied at one game apiece. 

A rested Denver side cruised to an easy victory in Game 1 against a tired Miami squad, but Game 2 proved to be an entirely different story. Led by Gabe Vincent’s 23-point game, the Heat captured a 111-108 victory in altitude.

With that loss, Denver’s playoff winning streak of nine home games came to an end. 

For Game 3, the Nuggets are 2.5-point road favorites on the spread with their moneyline priced at -135 on BetMGM Sportsbook. For Heat bettors, they can take the points or +110 moneyline odds if they believe Miami wins a second straight game in the series.

As for the over/under, it’s set at 214.5 points with both sides listed at -110 odds.

NBA Finals Game 3 Side Evaluation

This is a tricky call to make given the Nuggets’ poor form on the road this season compared to their record against the Heat. 

Across the regular season and the playoffs, Denver is a dismal 10-17 against the spread when they’re playing as a road favorite. In general, the Nuggets are only 23-25 against the spread when they play away from Ball Arena. 

Most of that form can be attributed to a huge drop-off in defensive play. During both the regular season and playoffs, Denver allowed only 108.3 points per game at home, according to teamrankings.com. 

On the road, however, that number skyrockets to 115 points per game. Just in the playoffs, Nuggets opponents are scoring 113.4 points per game when Denver is the road team. 

Plus, we’re wary of backing the Nuggets in this spot given that they appear to be an early public darling. As of this writing, 60% of all betting tickets are coming in on Denver against 94% of the total handle. 

While the latter percentage is slightly encouraging from a sharp betting angle, the knowledge of backing a public favorite is quite worrisome. 

All of that said, the thought of backing the Heat in Game 3 appears a dangerous proposition. 

Even if you include their Game 2 win, this remains an Erik Spoelstra-led side that is 1-3 straight up against the Nuggets this season. Additionally, you’re buying high on a Miami team that, historically, fits a less-than-profitable betting system. 

Teams in the postseason that play as a home underdog coming off a road win are 23-31-2 against the spread in the subsequent contest. 

Shrink that 56-game sample down to the last 10 qualifying teams and bettors will find those squads are 1-9 ATS over that timeframe. 

Conversely, this is a Heat team that has punched above its weight against upper-echelon competition. This season in home games against sides with a win percentage higher than 51 percent, Miami is 5-2 ATS, including a perfect 4-0 against the number in the playoffs. 

Taking all that information into account, it’s a stayaway on the side for me. However, if the number on Denver continues to rise as a function of further public love, we would consider backing the Heat.

Pick: Stayaway (Lean Heat at +3 or better)

NBA Finals Game 3 Total Evaluation

There’s a high chance we’ll regret saying this, but Game 3 feels like a contrarian Over spot. 

Teams will arrive with two days of rest following Sunday’s contest and, if home/road splits are any indication, bettors could see more points. 

We’ve already mentioned the Nuggets’ road defensive issues, which should help boost a generally weak Heat offense that finished dead-last in points per game during the regular season.

Now, that offense—which just put up 111 points on Sunday—gets a shot at a Denver defense allowing 10 more points per away game during their postseason run. 

Plus, this is also a Heat side that has generally allowed opponents to get their fair share of points since the Eastern Conference Finals. Take out Boston’s 84-point performance in Game 7—a game where they couldn’t hit a three to save their lives—and the average rises to 108.1 points per game. 

Plus, Denver prefers to attack the area of the court where Miami is most prone to surrendering chances—the rim. During the regular season, the Nuggets ranked first in effective field goal percentage overall and third in effective field goal percentage at the rim, per dunksandthrees.com. 

On the flip side, the Heat finished 25th in effective field goal percentage overall as well as 27th in effective field goal percentage at the rim, once again per dunksandthrees.com. 

We’ve seen that mismatch come to fruition in the first two games as Denver has posted effective field goal percentages of 56 and 59 percent in Games 1 and 2, respectively. 

There’s also generally not much difference between the Nuggets’ offensive splits at home and on the road in the playoffs. To date, they’ve tallied 113.5 points per game at home compared to 117.6 points per contest in road games. 

Add in the fact that Denver has managed 112 points per game against Miami in four head-to-head meetings this season, and we trust the Nuggets’ offense to do enough to send this game over the total. 

Pick: Total Over 214.5 Points (-110) 

Nikola Jokic Game 3 Player Prop Bet: Over 28.5 Points (-115) 

Game 2 signaled a change in defensive approach for the Heat, who sought to limit Jokic’s role as a distributor while accepting that he’ll earn a monstrous share of points. 

After scoring 27 points in Game 1, Jokic soared to a 41-point performance in Sunday’s game, his third-highest output in the playoffs thus far. 

Although buying high on Jokic’s points performance feels dangerous, it’s worth noting that he’s cleared this benchmark in nine of 17 playoff games, including eight of the previous 11 games. 

Plus, Jokic is facing a Heat defense that is objectively terrible at defending the rim in the playoffs. As mentioned earlier, Miami ranked 27th in that category prior to the postseason. 

Lastly, Jokic has cleared this benchmark in five of seven road contests for the playoffs and has averaged 28.5 points per game in four head-to-head meetings with the Heat this season. 

Based on those factors, take the MVP runner-up to clear his points prop of 28.5.