NBA Opening Night: Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

It’s been almost five months since the Denver Nuggets swept the Los Angeles Lakers in the Western Conference Finals en route to their first NBA championship in franchise history.

Those two will meet again on the NBA’s opening night, which tips off on Oct. 24 at 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. Here’s everything you need to know before betting on the season opener:

Lakers-Nuggets Odds Overview

• Spread: Nuggets -5, Lakers +5
• Moneyline: Nuggets -205, Lakers +170
• Over/Under: 227 points

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.

Lakers & Nuggets Last Season

The last time we saw the Nuggets in action, they were hoisting the Larry O’Brien Trophy on their home court after a workmanlike five-game series win over the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals.

It was the culmination of a stellar postseason run for Denver and two-time MVP winner Nikola Jokic, who enters this season as the slim betting favorite (+450) to win the award for the third time after adding Finals MVP to his resume last season.

He’ll be flanked again by the core of Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr., the key pieces for a team narrowly favored to defend its West crown. And while losing bench heroes Bruce Brown and Jeff Green will test Denver’s depth, this is still a team built to contend in 2023.

The same can be said for the Lakers, who bring back the core of a roster that came alive over the back half of last season and scrapped with the eventual champions in last year’s Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles retooled this summer around stars LeBron James and Anthony Davis, who should be at full strength ahead of Opening Night after missing a combined 53 games a year ago.

Point Spread

It shouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Nuggets as a clear favorite on their home floor after cutting down the nets last June. But are we sure this group deserves this much respect from oddsmakers?

It’s easy to overreact to Denver’s elite postseason run – the Nuggets outscored teams by eight points per 100 possessions in the playoffs – but they posted a much more modest +3.3 net rating in the regular season. This is also objectively a worse roster than the one we saw last year, especially with the versatile Brown leaving town for a payday in Indiana.

That isn’t to say this team isn’t as good as its playoff run showed; it is. That said, we may not see that version show up in the regular season, especially with an extensive injury history for two of their four top options (Murray and Porter). We aren’t going to see 40 minutes from Murray every single night, and Porter is already battling a minor ankle sprain that could limit him in this one.

Conversely, the Lakers getting swept out of the postseason won’t curry favor among casual bettors, especially against the very opponent that swept them. Let’s not forget, though, that Los Angeles looked like one of the best teams in the NBA after overhauling its rotation at the trade deadline.

Since acquiring D’Angelo Russell, Jarred Vanderbilt and Malik Beasley at the deadline, the Lakers posted the NBA’s second-best record (18-8) and sixth-best net rating (+4.8), even with James on the sidelines for nearly that entire stretch. Ironically, both marks far exceeded what we saw from Denver (15-11, +1.4) over the same stretch.

Obviously, that script flipped in the postseason, but three of those four conference finals contests were decided by six or fewer points. Expect a similar outcome in this one, too, with LA covering.

Pick: Lakers +5

Moneyline

Based on what we saw from these teams last season, it’s easy to envision a close outcome when they meet again on Opening Night. Can the Lakers threaten an outright upset?

As impressive as this team looked over the second half of last season, Los Angeles should be even better this season with a full offseason to build chemistry under coach Darvin Ham, who enters his second season as a head coach. And he’ll have an even more impressive rotation at his disposal.

Yes, the Lakers will miss the likes of Beasley and guards Dennis Schroder and Lonnie Walker, who all left via free agency. That said, their new pieces are intriguing. Former Heat point guard Gabe Vincent is an ideal fit as a low-maintenance shooter in the backcourt, while forwards Taurean Prince and Cam Reddish should slide in seamlessly as rangy wings with shooting upside.

The real offseason prize could be center Christian Wood, who has bounced around the league as an elite three-level scorer with question marks elsewhere. Early reports from camp suggest he’s committed to changing that narrative under defensive-minded Ham, and he’ll be in a perfect spot to make an early statement on both ends against Denver’s thin frontcourt rotation behind Jokic.

It’s also fair to consider the incentives here for both sides. The Lakers have already made it clear that they’re out for revenge against the team that ended their season in May, while the Nuggets surely have their eyes on another deep postseason run and could be due for a title hangover in Game 1.

Recent history doesn’t love the chances of an upset here. Defending champions are 60-16 straight up (78.9%) in season openers – including the Golden State Warriors’ win last year over Los Angeles and James, who is 7-13 all-time in his team’s debut. At this price, though, there’s more than enough value to take a shot on the road ‘dogs in a matchup that could go either way.

Pick: Lakers +170

Over/Under

It’s always easy to bet the Over, especially on the first game of the season with so much respective star power on either side. That said, don’t be surprised if this game is won on the defensive end.

When these teams faced off in last year’s postseason, just one of those four games went over a combined total of 227, which is just a touch lower than the NBA average from last regular season (229.4). And while scoring tends to dip in the playoffs, there are reasons to expect a slugfest here, too.

The primary one is Davis, who looked like the best defensive player on the planet over the final few months of last season. His ridiculous range and athleticism helped limit Jokic to 25.7 PPG on 45.3% shooting over the final three games of that WCF series, and he’s surrounded by even more size and defensive acumen in this year’s rotation.

Consider that those post-deadline Lakers boasted the NBA’s second-best defensive rating (110.8), largely thanks to the addition of Vanderbilt on the wing. This year’s crew should be more lanky and switchable with Prince, Reddish and rookie Jalen Hood-Schifino in tow. Wood has the size to be disruptive on that end against the second unit as well, especially if he takes to Ham’s coaching this offseason.

One footnote that could factor in here is the ankle injury for Porter, who missed practice this week and has been wearing a walking boot as the team wraps up training camp. He’ll likely be back in action once the season tips off, but if he’s hampered at all on Opening Night, that could hinder Denver’s offense enough to help tilt this game in Under bettors’ favor.

Pick: Under 227

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