NBA Finals: Nuggets are -400 favorites to beat Heat in best-of-seven series

As they've been throughout the playoffs, the Miami Heat enter the upcoming NBA Finals against the Denver Nuggets as a distinct underdog, which shouldn't come as any surprise. Recent success aside, the Heat are still an eighth seed facing a Western Conference champion that boasts two-time MVP Nikola Jokic.

But Erik Spoelstra's Heat will deal with more than just the Nuggets when the series opens in the Rocky Mountains on Thursday: Denver sits at an altitude of 5,276 feet, which is why it's known as the Mile High City.

It's also why gamblers like to favor Denver-based teams at home, particularly when they face off against visitors from sea-level cities, such as Los Angeles and Miami. As a result, the Nuggets are -400 favorites to win their first NBA title, according to BetGM, which gives the Heat about a 25-percent chance of pulling off another postseason upset.

'Yeah, it's real,' Los Angeles Lakers star LeBron James said of the altitude effect prior to being swept by the Nuggets in the Western Conference Finals. 'You get tired a lot faster than you would if you wasn't in it.'

Jokic, who has been a triple-double machine throughout the postseason, enters the series as a -300 favorite to win MVP, followed by Miami's Jimmy Butler (+350) and Denver guard Jamal Murray (+1200).

Denver, a member of the original ABA, has never won an NBA title or even reached the Finals, but have only lost three games over the first three rounds of the postseason.

The Heat reached the Finals by winning Game 7 of the East title series in Boston on Monday night. It came one year to the day after the Celtics won a Game 7 on Miami's floor to win the East title a year ago.

'Next year, we will have enough and we're going to be right back in the same situation, and we're going to get it done,' Butler vowed that night.

The Heat made those words prophetic.

The Nuggets had a flight to Boston tentatively scheduled for Tuesday afternoon, just in case they would be facing the Celtics — who would have had home-court advantage in the title series.

But the Heat had other ideas, won the deciding game to avoid becoming the first team in NBA history to fall after claiming a 3-0 series lead, and Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets now await. The Heat are in the finals for the seventh time and seeking their fourth championship; the Nuggets are in the finals for the first time in franchise history.

'When we wake up tomorrow morning, we know who we're playing,' Nuggets coach Michael Malone said Monday, a few hours before the Celtics and Heat tipped off in Game 7. 'We know who we're preparing for and we can kind of turn the page and really focus in on that. The Eastern Conference finals has been a hell of a series.'

Malone will try to win an NBA title for the first time, and if Denver prevails he'll become the 36th coach in league history to win a championship. Miami's Erik Spoelstra is seeking his third title as a head coach; if he wins it, he'd join only Phil Jackson, Red Auerbach, Heat President Pat Riley, John Kundla, Gregg Popovich and Steve Kerr as three-time champion coaches.

Denver hasn't faced any real trouble yet in these playoffs. The Nuggets are 12-3 in the playoffs, winners of their last six games — and grabbed control of their matchups against Minnesota in Round 1, Phoenix in Round 2 and the Lakers in the West finals right away.

Two-time MVP Jokic averaged a triple-double against both the Suns and the Lakers, and enters these finals averaging 29.9 points, 13.3 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game. One of his signature moves of late has been pointing to his ring finger while looking at his family; he's now four wins away from the piece of jewelry he wants most.

'Nikola is still a humble, selfless person and he cares about home, he cares about family, he cares about his horses -- the guy is just who he is,' Malone said. 'I couldn't have more respect for him as a man because of that.'

A week ago, Miami was in position to do what Denver did — get to the finals with a sweep. It's almost like the Heat forgot they were a 44-38 team that needed two play-in games just to get into the playoffs; they ousted No. 1 overall seed Milwaukee in Round 1, got past New York in Round 2 and then avenged last season's loss to Boston in the East finals by somehow going onto the Celtics' home floor and winning a Game 7 to avoid the permanent stench of being the first team in NBA history to waste a 3-0 series lead.

'Sometimes you have to suffer for the things that you really want,' Spoelstra said. 'And this group has shown fortitude. ... We still have more to do.'

It was a hellish week, for certain. But the Heat got there, just the second No. 8 seed to ever make the finals.

'Everybody rallied around each other,' Heat center Bam Adebayo said.

Miami has three players with championships – Udonis Haslem has been part of all three Heat titles, Kevin Love won a championship with Cleveland and Kyle Lowry got a ring with Toronto. The Nuggets have one champion on their roster; Denver's Kentavious Caldwell-Pope got one with the Lakers at the NBA's restart bubble in 2020 against the Heat.

Also back from that Heat finals team: Butler, Adebayo, Duncan Robinson, Tyler Herro and Gabe Vincent. The only Denver player besides Caldwell-Pope with finals experience is Jeff Green, who played in the title series alongside Love with Cleveland in 2018.

So, most players will be seeking their first ring. Haslem is trying to end his career with a fourth, and Lowry is among the lucky few who are trying to smudge the Larry O'Brien Trophy for the second time.

He remembers how long it took him in 2019, after the Raptors won their title, to start thinking about winning his next one.

'Maybe like the day after,' Lowry said. 'And every champion, every NBA champion, would tell you this: There's a high that you never have felt and you want that high again. And there's nothing like that.'

Denver swept both games against Miami in the regular season. And both sides will inevitably say that those games won't matter much starting Thursday.

'The Heat are playing an unbelievable high level,' Malone said. 'Jimmy Butler, what he's been doing since Round 1 against Milwaukee, continued that Round 2 against New York and now what he's doing against Boston is just historical in nature. And Erik Spoelstra … obviously Spo is one of the best coaches in the league, someone who I have a tremendous amount of respect for as a coach but also just as a friend.'