NBA parlay picks March 1: Back Phoenix in Durant’s Suns debut

The NBA’s nine-game schedule provides plenty of parlay opportunities and we’re building one off of two alternate spreads and a deep-cut player prop.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Durant is finally ready to take the floor for the Phoenix Suns, the New York Knicks are hot while their opponent is not, and Malik Beasley is unlikely to manage an impressive assist total.

NBA odds as of 11:19 a.m. on 03/01/2023.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Suns -4 + Knicks -5 + Beasley under 2.5 assists (+261)

Suns -4 (-315): In almost any circumstance, it’s fair to expect a solid 33-29 team like the Suns to cover a modest spread against a tire fire like the 20-43 Charlotte Hornets.

Wednesday circumstances are even better for Phoenix than that record disparity suggests.

That’s because the Suns will welcome Durant to the lineup for the first time. While he could be on something of a minutes restriction, he’s likely to give the team a significant boost.

As Phoenix’s arrow is pointing up, Charlotte looks like it’s headed for a grim finish to the season.

The Hornets just lost their best player — LaMelo Ball — to a season-ending injury. Charlotte is 7-20 without its offensive centrepiece, with two-thirds of those games resulting in losses by four points or more.

Other parlay legs

Knicks -5 (-167): The Knicks have quietly put together an outstanding stretch recently and will face a Brooklyn Nets team that has been awful.

Here’s a basic comparison between the teams since Brooklyn moved Kyrie Irving out of town:

We’re bringing down the standard spread (-7.5) a touch for an added dose of security, but there’s no reason to believe the Knicks won’t mop the floor with a Nets team that’s adrift without its stars.

New York also has homecourt advantage and more rest as the Nets played on Tuesday night, while the Knicks last saw action on Monday.

Beasley under 2.5 assists (-143): This line is steep for a guy who’s averaging 1.7 assists per game this season.

Unsurprisingly, the sharpshooter has hit this under in 77% of his appearances, and there’s no reason to expect him to go over on Wednesday. If anything, he’s probably less likely to produce a high assist total than his season-long stats indicate.

Since getting traded to the Los Angeles Lakers, Beasley has gone under this line in five of six appearances thanks to a role built almost exclusively off launching catch-and-shoot 3-pointers.