NBA parlay picks March 25: Fade offence in 76ers vs. Suns matchup

All three of the NBA’s top MVP contenders are in action tonight, and our +242 parlay involves each of them.

The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets should win (or at least keep things close) at home against Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks. Also, we’re fading offence in a game involving Joel Embiid’s Philadelphia 76ers, as well as a game between the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans.

NBA odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on 03/25/2023.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Nuggets +2.5 + PHI/PHX under 231.5 points + NOP/LAC under 229.5 points (+242)

Nuggets +2.5 (-190): Denver is one of the best home teams in the league, but we’re teasing this spread by a handful of points to account for tonight’s challenging opponent.

The Bucks are coming off a pair of blowout wins, and they have an impressive 23-13 road record this year, but they also have to play away from home for a second consecutive night.

Denver, meanwhile, has been resting for two days after completing a road trip. And the Nuggets have the best record this season when wielding a rest advantage (15-3).

Given the edge that a rest advantage provides the Nuggets, as well as the fact that Denver is 30-6 at Ball Arena this year, a straight-up win is reasonable to expect. Still, we’ll give Jokic and co. a couple points for added security.

Other parlay legs

PHI/PHX under 231.5 points (-215): Both the 76ers and the Suns hit the over more often than not, and Phoenix is on quite a heater of overs lately, but we have reason to tail a teased-up under.

Philly and Phoenix both played Friday night, and they tend to play low-scoring games on zero days’ rest.

The under is 7-4 when the 76ers play on back-to-backs this season, and it’s 8-2 in the same setting for Phoenix.

Also, the 76ers have gone under this total in four of their past five games, and these teams combined for just 188 points in their lone matchup earlier this season.

Pelicans/Clippers under 229.5 points (-195): Los Angeles is one of the most frequent under teams in the NBA, cashing the under in 55.4% of its matchups (third-most in the league).

Combine that trend with the fact that L.A., is missing one of its top scorers (Paul George, 28.3 points/ game), and you’ve got a recipe for another under. This is a line L.A. has failed to clear in five of its past seven games.

New Orleans has fallen under this line in four consecutive games, and overall the under is 8-2 in the Pelicans’ past 10 matchups.

Also, these teams have hit the under in all four of their matchups since the beginning of last season.