NBA picks, best bets for 76ers-Celtics and Suns-Nuggets: Why Philly, Denver can close things out Thursday

Now that we're in the thick of the NBA playoffs, the basketball betting market is hotter than ever. CBS Sports will be providing daily picks for the duration of the postseason. Sam Quinn will make at least one pick for every game between now and the NBA Finals. All lines courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.

Featured Game| Philadelphia 76ers vs. Boston Celtics

I could give you a number of statistical reasons to back Philly in Game 6. I could point out that Joel Embiid looked healthier than he has all series in Game 5, that Boston's reliance on 3-pointers is starting to backfire as the 76ers have adjusted to their offense and that the 76ers, for the totality of the Embiid era, have been one of the NBA's best home teams. Or, I could just ask you what your eyes are telling you. Because based on the eye test alone, the Celtics simply look stale. They look like a team doesn't know how it wants to play or who its five best players are. They look like a team that needs changes it doesn't currently have time for. Boston is 18-14 since March 1. The team's coach looks overmatched. Sometimes basketball can be as simple as watching two teams play and knowing intuitively that one just doesn't look right. The Pick: 76ers +2.5

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns

Featured Game| Phoenix Suns vs. Denver Nuggets

Game 5 was the first proof this series has provided that Devin Booker and Kevin Durant are mortal. The two of them combined to shoot 18-of-43 in Game 5, and the Suns predictably lost by 16 points in Denver. They combined for 158 points in the two games in Phoenix... and the Suns won those games by 12 combined points. The margin for error is simply too thin to ever pick a Suns victory. One is certainly possible because Booker and Durant have proven capable of posting gaudy scoring totals on remarkably efficient shooting lines, but that shouldn't be the expectation simply because any player, even someone as good as Booker, shouldn't be expected to make 80% of their shots in a game. The Pick: Nuggets +3