Odds, picks, betting tips for Friday's Game 3s

2dESPN Fantasy and Betting Analysts

3dESPN Fantasy and Betting Analysts

• ESPN Fantasy and Betting Analysts

May 4, 2023, 05:00 PM

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Friday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Friday

Game 3 always carries significant weight. Teams that win the first two games of a best-of-seven series go on to win that series nearly 93% of the time. The Phoenix Suns, then, are seeking to take Game 3 at home this evening in order to become the rare team down two games to turn the tide in their series with the Denver Nuggets. The Suns are positioned as home favorites in this must-win scenario.

For tonight's meeting of rivals in Philadelphia, it's notable that the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 series goes on to win that series 73% of the time, adding weight to an already meaningful matchup. The Boston Celtics enter as slight favorites on the heels of Wednesday's blowout win. It could be rewarding to tie your take on this game to current series odds.

In regards to fantasy stock, my top two plays of the slate are Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray, which might portend another tough night for the Suns. In the Eastern game, Jayson Tatum is due to get untracked while Tyrese Maxey could benefit from some home cooking. In a night of crucial third games, expect the stars to shine.

Game of the night

Boston Celtics at Philadelphia 76ers
Game 3: 7:30 p.m. ET, Series tied 1-1

Records (Against the Spread)
Celtics: 57-25 (45-36-1)
76ers: 54-28 (46-35-1)

Line: Celtics (-2) Total: 215
BPI Projection: 76ers by 1.9
Money Line: Celtics (-135), 76ers (+115)

Injury Report:
Celtics: Danilo Gallinari, (OUT - Knee)
76ers: Joel Embiid, (GTD - Knee)

Kezirian predicts a Celtics win in Game 3

Doug Kezerian says he still expects the Celtics to win on the road in Philadelphia.

Best bet:Jayson Tatum over 29.5 points. Let's try this again after Wednesday's blowout ruined almost all of the possible prop bets that were out there. Tatum had just seven points on 1 of 7 shooting in 19 minutes of Game 2's blowout after going for 39 in Monday's Game 1 upset loss to the Sixers. Things should return to normal as the series shifts to Philly and Tatum and Jaylen Brown are both expected to go off. Tatum is one of the faces of the future of the NBA and will have to come up big in Game 3 if the Celtics are going to re-take home court in the series. Tatum and Joel Embiid will be the two most talented players on the court and unlike Embiid, Tatum is not working with one leg. He's going to have to go off and score 30 points if the Celtics are going to win. And he's probably dying to get back out there and show his stuff after Wednesday night's disaster. -- Steve Alexander

Best bet: Al Horford over 7.5 points. Horford had 11 points in 30 minutes in Game 1 before hitting just 2 of 10 shots for five points in 24 minutes in Game 2's blowout. Horford loves the challenge of playing against Embiid and it's hard to envision him scoring fewer than eight points in two straight games. He should be back at 30 minutes tonight and if he doesn't score at least eight points, Boston has a problem on their hands. -- Alexander

Denver Nuggets at Phoenix Suns
Game 3: 10 p.m. ET, Nuggets lead series 2-0

Records (Against the Spread)
Nuggets: 53-29 (44-37-1)
Suns: 45-37 (42-38-2)

Line: Suns (-4) Total: 225
BPI Projection: Nuggets by 3.2
Money Line: Nuggets (+158), Suns (-190)

Injury Report:
Nuggets: None reported
Suns: Chris Paul, (OUT - Groin)

Best bet: Devin Booker over 44.5 points + rebounds + assists. Booker had 46 total points/rebounds/assists in Game 2 and 39 PAR in Game 1. The Suns are going to be at home and Chris Paul will be out for this one with a groin injury, meaning Booker is going to have to do it all. He may hit the over in points alone, but when you add in his rebounds and assists, he seems like an obvious choice to have a big all-around game tonight. -- Alexander

Best bet: Jamal Murray over 23.5 points. Murray went off for 34 points in Game 1 of this series but hit just 3 of 15 shots in Game 2, missing all nine of his 3-point attempts. That shouldn't happen in Game 3 and Denver understands that Murray has to score for them to win this game. He hit 13 of 24 shots in Game 1 and I'm expecting him to get back on track tonight. Murray should flirt with a 30-point game as long as more of his shots are falling on Friday. -- Alexander