NBA Picks for November 29: Basketball Best Bets, Predictions, Odds on DraftKings Sportsbook
With the help of the new tools in the DraftKings Sportsbook Stats Hub, a series of plays jumped out from Wednesday’s NBA slate.
TEASER +125
Orlando Magic -5.5 vs. Washington Wizards
Philadelphia 76ers +2 at New Orleans Pelicans
The first Sorcerers’ Cup match of the season is set to take place on Wednesday in Orlando. As expected, the Magic are heavy favorites in this one since Jordan Poole and company haven’t exactly been mystical to start 2023-24. (Although, mystical is defined as “inspiring a sense of spiritual mystery, awe, and fascination,” and there’s definitely some level of mystery surrounding the Wizards.)
Washington is a cool 3-14 this season. Against the spread, the Wizards are 8-9. But when we adjust things for this four-point teaser, they’re 6-11 when getting just 5.5 points this season. Meanwhile, Orlando has covered four-point teasers in seven straight. And in the last 13 divisional games which the Magic have been favored, they’ve covered a four-point teaser.
About 550 miles away (by air), Philly will also put a long teaser streak to the test vs. the Pelicans. The 76ers have covered four-point teasers in the last 13 road games in which they’ve played as favorites. Also, if the 76ers were getting two points every game this season, they’d be 13-4 ATS.
PARLAY +110
Houston Rockets at Denver Nuggets alternate total over 209.5
Los Angeles Clippers at Sacramento Kings alternate total over 223.5
These two games apply to a system I highlighted before the season as a potential season-long play: over on the total in Western Conference games when the underdog is on the second leg of a back-to-back. That play jumped out to a great 7-0 start, but regression was undoubtedly on the horizon.
Following the three most recent games that this system applied to, the play is now 7-2-1 in 2023-24. Rather than fully fade the play, which has had a hit rate over 57% in each of the last two seasons, I’m taking alternate totals for two games that it applies to on this slate and parlaying them.
As of writing, the total for HOU-DEN is 216.5 and it’s 231.5 for LAC-SAC. When it comes to HOU-DEN alternate total, the odds on the total being over 209.5 straight up are -215 as of writing. Across all NBA games this season, that play has hit 81.7% of the time. Things get a little dicier with LAC-SAC, but that number puts us just above even odds and has still hit more often than not, registering a 58% success rate so far this season.
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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
The contents contained in this article do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment.
