NBA picks: Mavericks vs. Thunder prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Thursday, March 14

Update: Doncic did not travel to Oklahoma City on Thursday and will miss the game against the Thunder, per Marc Stein. The spread is still Thunder -11 and the point total has dropped to 234.5. I’m sticking with Dallas as the ATS pick and the under on the point total.

The Dallas Mavericks (38-28) will hit the road to take on the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-20) on Thursday. Tipoff from the Paycom Center in Oklahoma City is set for 10 p.m. ET, and the game will air on TNT. This is the third of four matchups this season between these teams. Oklahoma City won the first 126-120, but Dallas won the second 146-111.

Dallas could be without point guard Luka Doncic on Thursday. He played 30 minutes in Wednesday’s game but was benched early due to hamstring soreness. Doncic is considered day-to-day and is questionable against the Thunder. Guard Brandon Williams is also day-to-day after missing Wednesday’s game with a left wrist sprain. Oklahoma City has a clean bill of health.

The Thunder are 11-point favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook. Oklahoma City has -520 moneyline odds, while Dallas is installed as the +390 underdog. The point total is set at 235.5.

Mavericks vs. Thunder, 10 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Mavericks +11

Dallas has won four straight games by an average of 17.25 points. That the Thunder are 11-point favorites suggests that sportsbooks don’t expect Doncic to suit up for Dallas. Oklahoma City has the second-highest percentage of covering against the spread in the league. Dallas comes in at fifth overall. The Thunder excel at covering at home (66.7%), but the Mavericks are just as good on the road (64.5%).

Even if Doncic sits, I think this is just too large of a spread to take. Dallas covers on the road.

Over/Under: Under 235.5

Oklahoma City has had 54.8% of its games hit the over. The Thunder are inconsistent on offense, scoring 111, 124, 107, 128 and 104 over their last five games. If the spread is so high because Doncic isn’t expected to play, then the point total seems way too high. Even though there are only six games in Thursday’s NBA slate, this is the largest point total by 8.5 points. I like the under in this one.