NBA picks: Pacers vs. Thunder prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Tuesday, March 12

The Indiana Pacers (36-29) visit the Oklahoma City Thunder (45-19) Tuesday evening in a matchup of young teams looking to make noise in the postseason. The Pacers are coming off a win over the Magic, while the Thunder have won three in a row to keep their spot at the top of the Western Conference. This is the first meeting between these sides this season.

Bennedict Mathurin is done for the season with a shoulder issue, while Doug McDermott is out with a calf strain. The Thunder have listed Jalen Williams as questionable after he suffered an ankle injury in the team’s last contest.

The Thunder are 6.5-point favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook with the total coming in at 240.5. Oklahoma City is -245 on the moneyline while Indiana is +200.

Pacers vs. Thunder, 8 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Thunder -6.5

The Pacers and Thunder have both been excellent against the number this year. Indiana is 34-29-3 ATS on the season while Oklahoma City is 39-24-1. The Pacers are 19-13-2 ATS as underdogs but that advantage wanes to 10-9-1 ATS as road underdogs. The Thunder are a league-best 19-8 ATS as home favorites.

Neither team has been particularly great recently when it comes to the spread but I’ll back Oklahoma City’s homecourt advantage even with Williams’ status up in the air. Take the Thunder to win and cover.

Over/Under: Under 240.5

Even though these are two of the more over-friendly teams in the NBA, both have recently been hitting unders. The Pacers have gone under their totals in seven of their nine games since the All-Star break. The Thunder have gone under their totals in five of their 10 games since the break but also have two pushes. I like both teams to stay relatively quiet offensively and keep this game under 240.5.