NBA picks: Warriors vs. Nuggets prediction, odds, over/under, spread, injury report for Christmas Day

The Golden State Warriors (15-14) will take on the Denver Nuggets (21-10) on Christmas Day on Monday. Tipoff from the Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado, is set for 2:30 p.m. ET, with both ESPN and ABC broadcasting the game.

The only injury to watch is for Golden State small forward Andrew Wiggins. He didn’t play in Saturday’s win over the Portland Trail Blazers due to an illness and is questionable. Aaron Gordon and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are probable for Denver.

The Nuggets are 7-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook. Denver is installed at -285 on the moneyline, while Golden State is the +230 underdog. The point total is set at 234.5.

Warriors vs. Nuggets, 2:30 p.m. ET

Pick ATS: Warriors +7

This will be the second of four games between these teams this season. The Nuggets won the first game 108-105. Golden State is 14-15 against the spread this season, which ranks in the middle of the pack in the NBA. Denver has been slightly worse and is 14-16-1 ATS. The Warriors fair slightly better on the road, covering in eight of 14 games but Denver is better at home, covering the spread in seven of 13 games.

The numbers don’t support either team outright, and both enter on modest win streaks. Golden State should be able to keep this one competitive and close. If they can, it should end with a similar score as the first matchup, meaning the Warriors would cover.

Over/Under: Under 234.5

Golden State has seen the over hit in 58.6% of its games, the 10th-most in the NBA. Denver has seen the under hit in 61.3% of its games, the second-highest mark for unders in the league. The Warriors bring the offense, but the Nuggets pack a defensive punch. The first matchup totaled 213 points, which would hit the under in the rematch by 20.

Golden State has scored at least 118 points in each of the games in its five-game win streak. Denver was held to 102 in its last game against Charlotte but scored at least 113 in the seven games before that. I’ll take the under in this one.