NBA Player Prop & Picks: Bet Nikola Jokic in Nuggets vs. Nets (March 19)

Via Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Nikola Jokic #15 of the Denver Nuggets looks on during a game against the Brooklyn Nets at Ball Arena on March 12, 2023 in Denver, Colorado.

NBA Player Prop & Pick

The Brooklyn Nets host the Denver Nuggets in Barclays Center today in a rematch from last Sunday. Nikola Jokic and his team are losers of five of their previous six games, and with a tight spread, I see value in his rebound props today.

Nicolas Claxton is the only obstacle for Jokic on the glass, and the Brooklyn Nets are struggling with rebounding lately. They allow the most opposing offensive rebounds (12.2) and defensive rebounds (39.0) per game in the league since the All-Star break, as well as allow the second-most to the center position (18.33) over the last 15 games.

Jokic averages 11.8 rebounds per game, below his prop line, but sometimes paying the premium is worth it because last Sunday, he was a monster on the boards, grabbing 20 rebounds on 28 chances in his previous meeting versus the Nets.

As for the matchup, I expect Jokic’s rebounding threats, Aaron Gordon (6.7 rebounds per game) and Michael Porter Jr. (5.3 rebounds per game), to be away from the basket on defense to defend wings like Mikal Bridges, Dorian-Finney Smith and Cameron Johnson on the perimeter. This should result in leaving Jokic around the paint to guard a lower-usage Nicolas Claxton, increasing the likelihood of grabbing a board.

On top of that, the Brooklyn Nets have been giving up big boards to opposing centers lately, including against Domantas Sabonis (20 rebounds), Bobby Portis/Brook Lopez (23 combined rebounds), Alperen Sengun (12 rebounds), Mark Williams (14 rebounds) and Nikola Vucevic/Andre Drummond (20 combined rebounds).

Despite recent trends and an inflated line, I expect many rebound opportunities for the reigning two-time MVP in a favorable matchup. I would be comfortable taking his rebounding prop up to -130.