NBA prop picks January 27: Bet the over on Kyle Lowry’s rebound total
For Friday night’s NBA slate, we’ve got a point-guards-only selection of prop picks.
The pregame narrative: Two fade-worthy floor generals have caught our eye in tough defensive matchups, with D’Angelo Russell going against the Memphis Grizzlies and Markelle Fultz facing the Miami Heat. We also like Kyle Lowry to clear a rebound total that’s below his season average.
Find all our best NBA props picks for January 27 below.
Odds as of 11:26 a.m. ET on 01/27/2023.
NBA prop picks
Best Bet: Russell under 20.5 points (-124)
In a particularly tough defensive matchup, asking Russell to post an above-average points total is not the right play.
Russell has averaged 17.6 points per game this season, falling under this line in 29 of 47 games (61.7%).
To be fair, his scoring has ticked up recently and that helps explain the bloated line. Russell has averaged 19.8 points and shot 50.7% from 3-point range over his last 10 games.
Given that he’s a 38.3% 3-point shooter on the year, we don’t view that kind of efficiency as sustainable. And even with it, he only hit the over on this line in half of those 10 games.
Facing a Grizzlies defence that holds opposing point guards to the third-fewest points in the NBA, per FantasyPros, Russell is worth fading tonight.
Key stat: Memphis held Russell to 19 total points in two previous matchups this season.
Quick picks
Fultz under 12.5 points (-122): Miami is one of the toughest defences in the league, allowing the second-fewest points (108.1 per game), and we don’t like this matchup for Fultz.
The former No. 1 overall pick has fallen below this line just over half the time (15 of 27 games), and now he’s up against a defence that holds point guards to the seventh-fewest points per game.
Both Miami and Orlando run offences that are below average in pace, meaning there will be fewer possessions for Fultz to score.
Lowry over 3.5 rebounds (-110): Despite often being the shortest player on the court, Lowry does pretty well on the glass. He averages 4.5 rebounds per game, which makes this line look more than reasonable.
In fact, Lowry has gone over this mark in 60% of his games this season (24 of 40), including four of his past five.
