NBA prop picks January 31: Fade Brandon Ingram against the Nuggets

There is a quintet of NBA games on Tuesday and we’ve got prop picks from three of those games.

The pregame narrative: Brandon Ingram is back from injury and we’re looking to fade his point total against the Denver Nuggets. Meanwhile, Giannis Antetokounmpo is poised for a monster night on the glass and Kawhi Leonard is a good bet to rack up the assists in Chicago.

Find all our best NBA props picks for January 31 below.

Odds as of 9:33 a.m. ET on 01/31/2023.

NBA prop picks

Best Bet: Ingram under 21.5 points (-112)

Ingram made his return to action last Wednesday after missing two months with a toe injury and he looked rusty.

The New Orleans Pelicans small forward dropped a lacklustre 13 points on 22% shooting in that game, but that was to be expected. Ingram did clear this total on Saturday night (22 points) but again struggled to find his stroke and shot a meagre 8 of 22 (36.4%) from the field.

It’s clear the big man is still finding his footing — and that’s fine — but tonight’s opponent is not going to be a walk in the park.

Denver has the sixth-best defensive rating at home (109.7), allows the sixth-fewest points at home (109.0) and are particularly effective in shutting down small forwards, too. The Nuggets allow the third-fewest points per game to small forwards (20.39), according to Fantasy Pros.

Even prior to Ingram’s injury, scoring 21 points was no lock. The 25-year-old is averaging 20.4 PPG this season and will likely be on a minutes restriction tonight.

Key stat: Ingram has gone under this total in nine of 17 games this season.

Quick picks

Giannis over 13.5 rebounds (-125): This is a lofty total for any player but Giannis isn’t called the Greek Freak for nothing.

His 12.0 rebounds per game rank second in the NBA and the Charlotte Hornets concede the second-most rebounds per game of any team (26.6).

The Milwaukee Bucks will also be without Bobby Portis tonight — that’s bad for them but good for us. He averages 10.1 rebounds per game and Giannis will likely take on some of that production.

Leonard over 4.5 assists (-129): Leonard isn’t a pass-first kind of guy but we like the value of this play going up against the Chicago Bulls.

The Bulls allow the fourth-most assists per game (26.3) and the third-most assists to small forwards per game (4.24).

The Claw has only cleared this total in two of his last five games but he is averaging 4.8 helpers in that span. Expect him to drop a handful of dimes tonight.