NCAA Football Predictions: Week 9 Opening Line Report and Picks
Welcome to the Doc's Sports NCAA Opening Line Report, where we give you an early look at the upcoming week's essential games. I will also analyze the opening line of select games that caught my attention and briefly explain my initial lean. We started the week early, with an under 61 pick in the Jacksonville State vs. Western Kentucky, with a final score of 20-17. Then we hit the Penn State vs. Ohio State under 48 with an Ohio State victory of 20-18. We were poised to sweep both of the Wisconsin vs Illinois picks, but the Badgers came down and scored a last-minute touchdown to win 25-21, screwing the 43.5-point total but still getting the Illini as a 4.5-point dog. Ending the evening, TCU forgot how to score, but Kansas State didn't, winning 41-3 and missing the over 56 total. On the whole week, we went 3-2, not bad, and just a couple of plays away from a 5-0 sweep.
In one of the other Top 25 matchups, No. 18 USC lost its second consecutive game, 34-32, to No. 14 Utah. This loss all but ended the Trojans' National Championship aspirations and QB Caleb Williams's hopes for a repeat Heisman Trophy. There is now talk that perhaps he should sit out the rest of the season to protect against a catastrophic injury that could jeopardize his professional career.
I saw one website call Williams arguably "the greatest college quarterback of all time." The only reason I think that was said was to be a "Click-Bait" statement and gain notoriety for the site. While Williams has produced video game stats, wouldn't the greatest QB ever have to win at least a conference championship? USC couldn't even emerge victorious in last year's bowl game, losing in the Cotton Bowl 46-45 to Tulane.
Doc’s Sports offers college football expert picks for every game on our college football predictions page.
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky (4/61) Tue. Oct 24th, 7:30 pm ESPNU
We kick off again with a Tuesday matchup, this time in Conference USA. The Liberty Flames, sporting a perfect 7-0 record, travel to Western Kentucky to take on the Hilltoppers. This has the makings of a blowout. The line opened at Liberty minus one and has already climbed three points to the current -4. Liberty is second in the nation in rushing, averaging 274.6 yards per game. The Flames are 15th in the country in scoring, putting up 36.3 ppg and only allowing 19.7 points per contest. The Hilltoppers are scoring an average of 30.0 ppg, while allowing 27.7 ppg. Liberty is 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Our models have Liberty winning this game by eight and going well above the 61-point total. PICK: Liberty -4 and OVER 61
Connecticut vs Boston College (-12/52.5) Sat. Noon ACC Network
I don't know why UConn doesn't follow Syracuse and Pitt and join the Atlantic Coast Conference. This contest will mark their third game against an ACC opponent. These two teams are both inept on defense, with BC ranked 105th in the nation in points allowed per game (30.4) and UConn 106th with the same. Where the Eagles excel is the offensive side, putting up 29.1 ppg to the Huskies’ 20.6. UConn has done well, from a gambling perspective, against their ACC foes, going 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the ACC Atlantic Division. In BC's last 10 games where they laid 10+ points, they're 9-1 SU but only 3-7 ATS. Boston College wins, but Connecticut covers. PICK: UConn +12
No. 4 Florida State vs. Wake Forest (+20/53.5) Sat. Noon ABC
The No. 4-ranked Seminoles are coming off a big win against Duke, of all people, and this looks like a potential let-down situation. In their last 10 games, laying more than 20+ points, FSU is 10-0 SU but only 5-5 ATS. However, until this season, they hadn't been a 3-touchdown road favorite since 2016. This edition of the Noles has a ton of talent but lacks focus sometimes, which isn't conducive to covering large spreads on the road. They traveled to Boston College earlier in the season as a 25-point favorite and escaped with a 31-29 victory in a game that saw Boston College score the final 19 points. The Demon Deacons have been 20-point dogs at home seven times in the last 25 years and are 5-2 ATS. They've already covered once this season as a 21-point dog against Clemson. Our models have this being a VERY close game, so Wake could be a big play this weekend. PICK: Wake Forest +20
Indiana vs No. 10 Penn State (-31/44.5) Sat. Noon CBS
The Nittany Lions are off their annual loss to Ohio State. However, remember that this is still the same squad that had covered in the 12 previous before last Saturday's 20-12 heartbreaker to the 3rd-ranked Buckeyes. Indiana is 124th in the country in scoring with 17.9 ppg and 97th in defense at 29.3 ppg. Delusional Penn State fans now believe their team will fall apart. James Franklin is making a living (and quite a comfortable one, too) of feeding off the Big Ten's dregs, and this Hoosiers squad definitely falls into that category. Our model is actually predicting a 56-0 Penn State shutout. While I'm not prepared to make that wager, the Nittany Lions will cover the spread and most likely the over themselves. Spoiler alert: this over will most likely be seen later in the week in another article. PICK: Penn State -31 and OVER 44.5
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