Nelson vs Barberena Odds: Bank On A Gunni Submission

Welterweights Gunnar Nelson (18-5-1, 9-5 UFC) and Bryan Barberena (18-9, 9-7 UFC) will square off on the main card at UFC 286. Barberena slid in as a late replacement for Daniel Rodriguez.

Since this fight is a stylistic mismatch, “Gunni” is a chunky -350 favorite. “Bam Bam” is the +275 underdog.

UFC 286: Gunnar Nelson vs Bryan Barberena Betting Odds

Odds as of March 13

Our odds calculator suggests Nelson’s -350 odds translate to an implied win probability of 77.78 percent, and a $10 bet on him pays out $12.86. Barberena’s +275 odds equate to a 26.67 percent chance of victory with a $10 bet paying out $37.50. 

UFC 286: Nelson vs Barberena Preview

Let’s rake in some cash together.

What Nelson Does Well

Nelson isn’t much for standup fighting, but he sure is one hell of a grappler. In fact, Nelson is one of the best to ever do it. The Icelander’s six submission wins have him tied for the most in UFC welterweight history, which gives you an indication why this fight is such a mismatch.

Yes, Nelson is a bit older and slower, but he’s still incredibly capable. He won’t waste much time striking, so watch for him to immediately engage Barberena in a grappling exchange. From there, it won’t take long for Gunni to attempt (and likely secure) a submission.

What Barberena Does (Or Doesn’t Do) Well

Barberena is a fun time as a brawler, but his ground game is abysmal. The 33-year-old got dominated by Rafael dos Anjos in his last fight, eventually losing by second-round submission. He might be able to tag Nelson at the start of each round, but the horn should sound with him on his back or butt.

Nelson has this one locked up.

Nelson vs Barberena Pick

To stop or not to stop? That is the question. I imagine Nelson will win this fight handily, but, depending on the value, I’d be gunning for either submission or decision.

The full odds aren’t out, but for now, my pick is Nelson by submission and the fight to finish UNDER 2.5 rounds.