UFC Fight Night 224 Prelimary Card Prediction & Picks

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21 July 2023

UFC Fight Night 224 Prelimary Card Prediction & Picks

Saturday afternoon is set to be filled with top-tier MMA action as UFC Fight Night 224 goes down at the O2 Arena in London, England. The main card is expected to be exciting as always, however, the preliminary card is also shaping up to be a memorable experience. After all, more quality betting options are never a bad thing.

Betting News has gathered the latest odds for all of the UFC Fight Night 224 preliminary card fights, along with an expert prediction for each matchup.

UFC Fight Night 224 Preliminary Card Prediction

The UFC Fight Night odds listed below are as of 10:02 p.m. on Thursday, July 20 via BetOnline.

Bantamweight: Davey Grant (+133) vs. Daniel Marcos (-153)

After two straight losses, Davey Grant (15-6) has rebounded with back-to-back wins, most recently overcoming Raphael Assuncao via technical submission in March. Daniel Marcos (14-0), meanwhile, vows to keep his undefeated streak intact after knocking out Saimon Oliveira at UFC 283.

I’m siding with Marcos on this one. His striking numbers are better than that of Grant, plus his takedown defense (88%) should be good enough to thwart his opponent’s grappling. It’s going to be a lengthy battle between two resilient fighters, however, Marcos’ undefeated ways combined with his superior striking will pay off.

Grant is good at avoiding knockout losses, though, so don’t be surprised if Marcos wins by some form of decision at UFC Fight Night 224.

Best Bet: Daniel Marcos by Points (+200)

Welterweight: Danny Roberts (-120) vs. Jonny Parsons (+100)

Danny Roberts (18-7) returns to action for the first time since November when he suffered a first-round TKO loss at the hands of Jack Della Maddalena. Standing in his way is Jonny Parsons (7-3), who hasn't fought since Dana White’s Contender Series 2021.

Honestly, this fight could go either way. On one hand, Roberts is tough to trust after going 2-4 in his last six fights. On the other, Parsons hasn’t stepped into the cage in about 21 months, however, he’s also on a five-fight winning streak.

Even though he’s been off for a while, I’ll side with Parsons pulling off the upset. Roberts just hasn’t looked good lately, whereas the underdog is hungry to make an impact.

Best Bet: Jonny Parsons Outright (+100)

Lightweight: Marc Diakiese (+165) vs. Joel Alvarez (-190)

Marc Diakiese (16-6) hopes to stop the bleeding after going 4-6 in his last 10 fights ahead of UFC Fight Night 224. He’s facing none other than Joel Alvarez (19-3), whose pride took a blow with a TKO loss to Arman Tsarukyan five months ago.

With Diakiese’s best days behind him, I predict that Alvarez will win. Not only does he average more strikes with better accuracy than Diakiese, but Alvarez also has the physical advantage, standing five inches taller when a reach that’s four inches longer. Furthermore, the favorite has also finished four of his last five opponents before the second of the second round.

Diakiese has struggled with grapplers in the past, so don’t be shocked if Alvarez takes home the victory by submission.

Best Bet: Joel Alvarez by Submission (+125)

Heavyweight: Mick Parkin (+140) vs. Jamal Pogues (-160)

Mick Parkin (6-0) is ready for his UFC London debut after submitting Eduardo Jose Neves on DWCS 2022. Meanwhile, Jamal Pogues (10-3) has transitioned well, improving to 3-0 at the UFC level with a unanimous decision win against Josh Parisian earlier this year.

While both fighters a great at dishing pain, it’s hard to ignore that Parkin absorbs a whopping 8.21 significant strikes per minute with 30% defense. He’s going to take a beating throughout the fight, especially with Pogues landing 49% of his shots.

Nevertheless, I’m not a huge fan of this fight because I can see it going either way. Instead of locking onto one fighter, let’s take a neutral approach by betting that it won’t go the distance. After all, only five of the 19 combined fights between Parkin and Pogues have gone the distance.

Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance — No (-145)

Middleweight: Makhmud Muradov (-350) vs. Bryan Barberena (+285)

Although he’s the clear-cut favorite at UFC Fight Night 224, Makhmud Muradov (25-8) needs a fortune reversal after back-to-back losses in his most recent two outings. Bryan Barberena (18-10) has also last two consecutive bouts, losing to both Rafael dos Anjos and Gunnar Nelson via submission.

I can’t bring myself to trust Barberena after being finished twice in a three-month span. Muradov is due for a bounce-back performance and should be able to take advantage of his opponent’s struggles. He might not be a wrestling expert, but Muradov still averages 0.7 takedowns and 0.2 submissions per 15 minutes.

Considering how Barberena has been taken down 27 times in his last seven fights, it could be a short night for the underdog.

Best Bet: Makhmud Muradov to win Inside Distance (+115)

Women’s Bantamweight: Ketlen Vieira (-150) vs. Pannie Kianzad (+130)

Ketlen Vieira (13-3) has struggled to gain consistent momentum, fighting to a 3-3 record in her past six outings. She’ll likely have her hands full with Pannie Kianzad (16-6), who has won five times in her previous six fights with each victory being earned via unanimous decision.

Kianzad’s record has been solid, but she hasn’t exactly been defeating tough opponents. Vieira might be up and down lately, but she still owns victories over former UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champions Miesha Tate and Holly Holm.

Kianzad’s grappling isn’t the best, so look for Vieira to wear her down before winning with some help from the judges.

Best Bet: Ketlen Vieira by Points (-105)

Lightweight: Chris Duncan (-145) vs. Yanal Ashmouz (+125)

Chris Duncan (10-1) heads into UFC Fight Night searching for his fourth consecutive win. While that’s impressive in its own right, it can’t be ignored that Yanal Ashmouz (7-0) has seven straight wins to begin his career, most recently knocking out Sam Patterson back in March.

A successful grappling attack has helped Duncan find success, but Ashmouz is a decent wrestler in his own right, averaging 12.0 takedowns per 15 minutes. Ashmouz has also knocked out four of his previous five opponents, which is promising given that Duncan’s lone loss came via KO on DWCS 2021.

As long as Ashmouz can avoid Duncan’s grappling, I see him tallying the upset via KO/TKO.

Best Bet: Yanal Ashmouz by KO/TKO (+325)

Women's Strawweight: Shauna Bannon (+135) vs. Bruna Brasil (-155)

The UFC Fight Night preliminary card is filled with undefeated fighters, including Shauna Bannon (5-0), who’s won five straight fights across Invicta FC and CLFC to begin her career. Meanwhile, Bruna Brasil (8-3-1) is out for blood following a TKO loss to Denise Gomes just a few months ago.

Being undefeated is no easy feat, however, there isn’t a ton of Bannon’s tape to go off of. At the same time, Brasil has at least won in the UFC before and actually racked up seven consecutive victories before losing her latest bout.

Nevertheless, this is another fight that I’m not a huge fan of. Although I like Brasil winning slightly more, I don’t see the bout going the distance no matter who wins. These women know how to hit hard with five KO/TKO wins between them, leading to me predicting that the matchup will not go the distance.

Best Bet: Fight to Go the Distance — No (+185)

Flyweight: Jafel Filho (-113) vs. Daniel Barez (-107)

Jafel Filho’s (14-3) UFC pay-per-view debut didn’t go as planned, succumbing to Muhammad Mokaev’s neck crank just four months ago. On the other side, Daniel Barez (16-5) hopes that he can make an impact in his first-ever UFC fight after winning four consecutive bouts in Mexico.

Filho could be in for another rough night. Barez has a dangerous arsenal of submission maneuvers that has led to six victories over the years. He also has a game plan to work on after Filho was taken down four times while being put in two submission holds during his loss to Mokaev.

Knowing that he can’t less this opportunity pass him by, back Barez to break Filho.

Best Bet: Daniel Barez by Submission (+450)