Nets vs. 76ers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Philadelphia Take 2-0 Series Lead?

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17 April 2023

Nets vs. 76ers Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can Philadelphia Take 2-0 Series Lead?

Down 1-0, the Brooklyn Nets will try to even the opening-round series against the Philadelphia 76ers in Monday’s Game 2 battle. Read on for our Nets vs. 76ers prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The 2023 NBA Playoffs didn’t get off to the most entertaining start, and that’s due to how lopsided this Game 1 matchup ended up being. The Philadelphia 76ers, who were 8.5-point favorites, pulled away from the Brooklyn Nets for a 121-101 win Saturday afternoon.

Two days later, Philadelphia is now a double-digit favorite and on the verge of taking a 2-0 series lead. Can Brooklyn pull off the upset before heading back home or will this opening-round series continue to be one-sided?

Here is our best Nets vs. 76ers prediction (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nets vs. 76ers prediction

Joel Embiid Over 3.5 assists (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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The presumed regular-season MVP had a quiet offensive day - at least by his lofty standards - during the 20-point win in Game 1. Joel Embiid finished with 26 points on 7-of-15 shooting, adding three assists and going 11-for-11 from the free-throw line.

Part of that is because of how the Nets defended Embiid. The Nets sent a double team at the big man whenever he touched the ball. This is their only hope of slowing him down, as they don’t have someone who can guard the 7-foot center in a man-to-man situation.

It's up to Embiid and Co. to do damage against these double-teams by passing to the open man. Philadelphia did just that in the opener, knocking down 21 3-pointers during Saturday’s win. Embiid only finished with three assists, but he had plenty more assist opportunities and secondary assists that led to an open look.

The Sixers set a franchise playoff record for most made 3-pointers, so it will be difficult to replicate that performance. But this is a team that has led the league in 3-point shooting since the All-Star break. The Nets are also unlikely to change their defensive game plan too much, as the alternative is having Embiid go to work in the paint.

Embiid is averaging 4.2 assists per game, clearing this assist prop of 3.5 in seven of his last 12 games. Embiid ranks in the 96th percentile in assist rate for his position, according to Cleaning the Glass.

NumberFire projects 4.4 assists for Embiid in this game, showing immense value on this plus-money price for our four-star pick.

Nets vs. 76ers best odds

DraftKings (+105)

Our best NBA betting sites are in agreement on Embiid’s assist prop being set at 3.5, with Barstool being the lone exception. The Over at Barstool is juiced too much for our liking, so take advantage of the best price at DraftKings or BetMGM instead.

With a projection of 4.4 assists, this line has roughly a 27% edge at the time of this writing. That said, this line is actually playable at anything -115 or better before we’d consider another player prop.

For those looking for a juicy payout, a two-leg same-game parlay of Embiid to finish with five-plus assists and the 76ers to win the game would offer a +285 payout. We prefer playing just the player prop for this game, however.

Nets vs. 76ers odds

Nets vs. 76ers odds analysis

This spread has not moved since the 76ers opened as 10-point favorites. The total, meanwhile, has dropped down to 213 after starting at 215. For comparison, Philadelphia was laying 8.5 with a total of 213.5 in Game 1 this past weekend.

The 76ers haven’t been double-digit favorites since March 17, when they were laying 10.5 against the Charlotte Hornets before proceeding to win the game by 39. The Nets won outright as 10.5-point underdogs in a road game against the Boston Celtics on March 3.