Nevada vs. Arizona State Predictions, Odds & Picks: Sun Devils Boast First Four Experience in March Madness

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13 March 2023

Nevada vs. Arizona State Predictions, Odds & Picks: Sun Devils Boast First Four Experience in March Madness

Just like in 2017-18, the Arizona State Sun Devils are playing in the First Four, this time against the Nevada Wolf Pack out of the Mountain West Conference. Read on for our Nevada vs. Arizona State college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

Nevada (22-10, 12-6) does not enter the NCAA Tournament in the best form, losing three straight games, including the last two in overtime. The Wolf Pack have lost to double-digit seeds in their previous two NCAA Tournament appearances and hope to avoid a third straight in this First Four matchup of No. 11 seeds.

Arizona State (20-11, 11-9) is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2018-19. The Sun Devils last reached the Round of 32 in 2009. Arizona State went just 2-6 against the Pac-12’s top four teams (UCLA, Arizona, USC, and Oregon) and finished with an 8-4 record in its final 12.

Here is our best Nevada vs. Arizona State college basketball pick (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Nevada vs. Arizona State odds

This feels like a line begging bettors to take Arizona State, as -1.5 points does not seem like a lot to lay to a team that is one of two NCAA Tournament teams entering on a three-game losing streak (Providence is the other). However, Nevada’s ability to protect the basketball and get to the free-throw line at a high clip are the biggest reasons we expect an upset in this matchup.

Nevada ranks in the top 25 nationally with a 15.2% turnover percentage. In addition, the Wolf Pack rank 22nd in free throw rate, and they knock down their free throws at the sixth-highest rate (79.2%) in the country. Defensively, the Wolf Pack do a great job at clogging the paint and making their opponents shoot over the top, as their 42.2% opposing 3-point attempt rate ranks in the top 40 of all D-I teams.

Arizona State’s key number is 65 points, as it is 14-0 when allowing 65 or fewer points this season. However, Nevada ranked fourth among all Mountain West teams with a 72.6 points per game scoring average this season, and we like the team to succeed offensively with the mismatches that 6-foot-6 point guard Kenan Blackshear can create. Blackshear is a bully inside that can post up smaller defenders and spearheads a defense that allows 0.93 points per possession with him on the floor, per HoopLens.com.

It is fair to wonder if Arizona State would even be an NCAA Tournament team if not for a half-court buzzer-beater at Arizona or a two-point non-conference win against Creighton when the Bluejays were without center Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Arizona State is a much better team as an underdog (9-5 against the spread) than a favorite (6-14 ATS), and we expect those trends to continue in a Nevada outright upset.

Nevada vs. Arizona State best odds

BetMGM (+105)

Most sportsbooks offer a point spread of either Arizona State -1 or -1.5. Thus, instead of backing Nevada’s point spread odds, we opt for the plus-money odds at BetMGM for the Wolf Pack to win outright and forego the one point of insurance.

Arizona State has lost six times as a favorite this season, while Nevada went 4-6 straight up as underdogs and nearly beat a Kansas State team in the non-conference that earned a No. 3 seed in the tournament.

Nevada vs. Arizona State odds analysis

Arizona State opened as consensus 1.5-point favorites, with the line either remaining firm at that number or lowering to -1 elsewhere. Sixty-eight percent of all point spread wagers have backed the favorite.

The consensus opening Over/Under was 133.5, but that number did not last long, as most sportsbooks are at 134 or 134.5 currently. Early betting splits are 2/1 in favor of the Over.