New Mexico football win total odds: Over/under prediction for 2023

Danny Gonzales returns as the head coach as New Mexico football looks to improve on their 2-10 record from last year. It is now time to continue our college football odds series with a New Mexico football win total prediction and pick.

The Lobos started 2022 strong with a win over Maine and New Mexico in the first three games. Then it was nine straight losses to end the season. It is just 15 wins for the Lobos in the last six seasons with only nine against FBS competition. The schedule sets up well for New Mexico to win more than two games this year, with multiple winnable games on the schedule.

While New Mexico brings back a lot on offense, ranking 18th in returning production, they are 103rd on defense. The offense was dead last in the nation last year though, and one of the worst-scoring offenses in the nation. Last year they scored over 20 points just two times. Once against Maine, and once against UTEP. Both resulted in victories. Bryant Vincent comes in from UAB to take over the offense, that should be run-heavy this year.  Vincent was a big grab for New Mexico. He did a great job as an interim head ocach last year at UAB and showed he can use any back to gain yards.

The defense lost a lot this year though. The secondary lost both their safeties and a corner to the transfer portal, but they bring back Donte Martin and a transfer from TCU to help out. The transfer portal will need to come up huge for the defense to be back to the level they were last year.

Here are the College Football Odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

in Over 3.5 wins: -105

Under 3.5 wins: -115

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Why New Mexico Can Win 3.5 Games 

New Mexico has one of the easiest schedules in the Mountain West according to the strength of the schedule. Still, they will be opening up 0-1 with a loss to Texas A&M week one. They get the bounce back the next week against Tennessee Tech. This was a four-win team out of the Ohio Valley conference last year, but this game will be closer than expected. they took Kennesaw State to overtime last year and could scare a team or two at the FCS level, but New Mexico will win.

They follow that up with a home date with New Mexico State, which could be the game to determine if they hit the over. New Mexico is going to be favored against the Aggies this year. New Mexico lost this game last year and while they lost parts, they bring in some quality new ones. Dylan Hopkins follows Bryant Vincent from UAB to give them a quality quarterback. Vincent is also amazing at putting together a running game regardless of who they have at running back. Chrisitan Washington will expose the lack of defensive back depth for the Aggies as he makes big plays with great speed.

The Lobos put together a winning streak beating UMASS next. UMASS is 131st in SP+ with one of the worst offenses in America. This may be a close game but New Mexico wins. Wyoming is next up before a bye and San Jose State. Both of these games require the same thing. They need to have some passing production. If Hopkins can do that, they can win both of them. If not, they will lose both of them. The best case is most likely a 1-1 here, bringing them to four wins already. Even if not, they have three more games left that can be won.

First is Hawaii. The Lobos can beat Hawaii. Hawaii does not have a productive quarterback, and Derdick Parson is gone at running back. The defense is average at best and will lose a lot on the road. Next is Nevada, who comes in with a very bad defense. The pass defense was one of the worst in the nation and Dylan Hopkins will feast on that. Finally,  UNLV is breaking in a lot of new players, and they may not all gel together. They lost their top offensive lineman, wideout, and running back this year. It's a place the Lobos can get a win. They need only one of those three games before they finish the season on a three-game losing skid, but they will get it.

Why New Mexico Can Not Win 3.5 Games

New Mexico has eight games that should be within reach of a win. They will not get all of them, and it is possible they only get two or three. While Tennessee Tech should be a win, it is also a spot prime for an upset. The defense is solid and can pick apart a poor offense. If the Golden Eagles keep the score low, they could pick off the Lobos and get the win.

Next are New Mexico State and UMASS. New Mexico is one of the worst teams in SP+ according to Bill Connelly. They rank behind both New Mexico State and UMASS. The main reason is the offense ranks second to last in all of FBS is SP+. These two games will fall squarely on Bryant Vincent and Dylan Hopkins. If the two of them have things figured out with this offense, it is two wins. If now, these are two losses, both teams will attack a porous New Mexico defense.

Wyoming and San Jose State will both require big upsets for New Mexico to win. New Mexico has not shown in recent years it can pull those upsets. They do not have the playmakers on either side of the ball to make the big play to cause the upset. UNLV will probably be an upset as well. If UNLV can develop a pass rush and their defensive backs can make some plays, it could be a quality team this year. A quality team will be in New Mexico most time, and they could suffer a loss here as well.

Final New Mexico Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick

New Mexico will fall to Texas A&M, but rebound with a win over Tennessee Tech. They get to 2-2 after a loss to New Mexico State and a win over UMASS. That is their last win of the season though. The offense does not figure things out, and when they do, the defense will let them down. Take the under on this one.

Final New Mexico Over/Under Win Total Prediction & Pick: Under 3.5 (-115)