New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox Prediction, 7/21/2023 MLB Picks, Best Bets & Odds

Game: New York Mets vs Boston Red Sox

Date: Friday, July 21, 2023

Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA

TV: NESN

Odds/Point Spread: New York (+100) Boston (-120)

The New York Mets (45-50) are traveling to Fenway Park on Friday where they will attempt to defeat the Boston Red Sox (51-46). The moneyline on this contest has New York at +100 and Boston is sitting at -120. The over/under is set at 9.5. The pitchers taking the mound are Kodai Senga and James Paxton.

New York has a slugging rate of .401 and have struck out 750 times, while drawing a walk on 319 occasions. They have accounted for 413 RBI's in addition to 745 hits this season, and their team batting average comes in at .238. The Mets have hit 125 doubles as a unit and have knocked 120 balls out of the stadium. They have a total of 424 runs scored and have an OBP of .319. As a team, the New York Mets are scoring 4.5 runs/g, which has them sitting at 17th in baseball.

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The Mets hold a team ERA of 4.37 on the year (18th in baseball), and their staff has struck out 815 batters. Mets pitchers have conceded 123 home runs and also 431 runs in total (17th in the league). Their pitching staff has walked 348 hitters and their FIP comes in at 4.69 as a team over the course of the season. New York has yielded 769 base hits (8.3 per 9 innings) and also 403 earned runs. They have earned a K/BB ratio of 2.34 and their pitching staff has a collective WHIP of 1.35.

The Mets have sent 305 relievers to the mound this year. The relief pitchers have inherited 132 base runners over the course of the season with 28.0% of those players crossed home plate. They have accumulated 22 saves this year and have missed out on 12 of their 34 chances to get a save. The Mets relief pitchers have earned a save rate of 64.7% and stepped onto the hill in 95 save situations. The relievers have notched 58 holds so far this season (7th in baseball). Mets bullpen pitchers have gone to the mound with players on base 89 times and also have had 95 appearances in high leverage situations.

The Mets have turned 69.7% of balls hit into play into outs out of their 7,467 innings, which has them sitting at 11th in professional baseball. The New York Mets have accumulated 2,489 putouts on the campaign, as well as 821 assists and 48 errors. Their fielding rate sits at .986 which has them sitting 17th in baseball, and have a total of 84 double plays.

Senga (7-5 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 3.87 while he has faced 407 batters during his time in the major leagues. He has surrendered 72 hits (6.8 hits per nine innings) and has 49 walks. His earned run average is 3.20 (34 ER's allowed) and he has a WHIP of 1.265. Senga has thrown 95 frames and has earned 122 strikeouts during his MLB career.

The Red Sox hold a team SLG% of .432 and they average 5.01 runs per outing (5th in baseball). They have 222 two-baggers, while walking 306 times as well as putting up 486 runs. Boston has knocked in 105 long balls on the campaign as well as 465 runs batted in. They have struck out on 792 instances (21st in baseball) and have accounted for 877 base hits. The Boston Red Sox have accumulated an on-base percentage of .331 as well as a batting average of .263 for the season.

The Boston pitching staff have given up 451 runs so far this season while holding an ERA of 4.35 (414 earned runs yielded). They have conceded 126 home runs and they yield 4.74 runs per 9 innings (19th in baseball). The Red Sox have a team WHIP of 1.299 in addition to having a FIP of 4.39 as a unit on the year. Their K/BB ratio sits at 8.80 (837 strikeouts against 283 free passes). They come in at 24th in the league as a pitching staff in total hits given up with 829.

Boston relief pitchers hold an inherited score percentage of 29.8% out of their 94 inherited base runners. Their relief pitchers have come in 78 times in high leverage situations and on 61 occasions with runners on. With 73 save situations, the Red Sox have earned 38 holds in addition to 8 blown saves. They are ranked 3rd in baseball with a save rate of 77.1%, and they have sent 292 relievers onto the diamond for the year. Boston has had relief pitchers step onto the hill in 35 save chances and they have earned 27 saves.

The Boston Red Sox have gotten 82 double plays and hold a fielding percentage of .981 (30th in baseball). The Red Sox have recorded 854 assists, 66 errors and have amassed 2,568 putouts so far this season. In 7,704 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 68.4% (19th in pro baseball).

Paxton (62-35 win-loss record in his career) holds a 3.58 ERA while surrendering 8.1 hits per 9 innings. His K/BB ratio is 3.63 and he has faced 3,366 batters so far in his MLB career. He has surrendered a total of 324 earned runs while earning a WHIP of 1.200 and having a FIP of 3.4. So far in his pro baseball career, Paxton has surrendered 728 base knocks while accumulating 899 K's in 813 innings pitched.

Who will win tonight's MLB game against the spread or moneyline?

Tony Sink's Pick: Take New York (+100)

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