New Zealand vs South Africa tips, predictions & RWC odds

New Zealand vs South Africa predictions:

After nearly two months of compelling rugby, the 2023 Rugby World Cup concludes on Saturday night in Paris in spectacular fashion when reigning champions South Africa face old rivals New Zealand. 

It’s been a long road to get to this point for the World Cup’s two most successful teams, but the Springboks and All Blacks are now in sight of a record-breaking fourth Webb Ellis Trophy.

These two nations know what it takes to win a final with the Boks boasting a 100 per cent record in World Cup title deciders, while the Kiwis have won three out of four finals.

New Zealand’s only defeat in a final came at the hands of South Africa in Johannesburg in 1995 when the underdog Boks upset the Jonah Lomu-lead All Blacks in extra-time.

South Africa find themselves in a similar position heading into Saturday’s showpiece with New Zealand marginal favourites in the Rugby World Cup odds to come out on top. 

That represents a remarkable turnaround for the much-derided head coach Ian Foster and skipper Sam Cane, who were fighting for their jobs a year ago. 

A record defeat to South Africa in the warm-ups and an opening night defeat to France cast further doubt on New Zealand, but they’ve steadily improved as the tournament has gone on and look right at the top of their game for a meeting with a tenacious South Africa.

The Springboks have scratched and clawed their way to another final, but getting this far has taken a lot out of the World Cup holders, and betting sites may be proven right in making New Zealand favourites.

After landing five of our six semi-final bets, here are our three Rugby World Cup final predictions.

All Blacks can work their magic in Paris

On the surface, the Rugby World Cup final comes down to the best attack in the tournament trying to break down one of the toughest defensive units Test rugby has ever seen.

New Zealand were already clear leaders in most attacking metrics before dishing out a seven-try thrashing to Argentina in the semi-finals, a result which extended their advantage for most points (325), tries (48), clean breaks (81), metres carried (4102), and defenders beaten (229).

An easier path to the final when compared to South Africa’s tricky route might explain why some of those numbers are so high, but they have also been clinical when it sight of the opposition’s tryline too.

In the epic quarter-final win over Ireland, New Zealand averaged 3.7 points per entry into the Irish 22, while against Argentina that number went up to 4.4 points.

There’s quality right across the backline for New Zealand with winger Will Jordan needing one more score to break the Rugby World Cup try record for a single tournament.

On the other wing is Mark Tele’a, who has beaten more defenders than anyone else in the competition, while brothers Jordie and Beauden Barrett are performing at an exceptionally high level.

South Africa boast some excellent backs too in the likes of Cheslin Kolbe and Kurt-Lee Arendse, but their team selection and the weather forecast suggests they will play supporting roles on Saturday. 

Coach Jacques Nienaber has selected experienced pair Faf de Klerk and Handre Pollard as his half-back pairing, while going for a 7-1 split on the bench, as he did when South Africa beat New Zealand at Twickenham in August.

The Springboks’ plan is clear; shut down New Zealand’s play makers and win the game via their exceptional depth of forwards. 

That’s going to take another big effort from a South Africa team that’s already had to dig deep in the clashes with Ireland, France and England, with some players looking out on their feet at the end of the win over England.

And if this does become an attritional battle, New Zealand have shown they can lean on a solid lineout and scrum, as well as a strong defensive game which has led to them registering more tackles (772) at the World Cup than South Africa (765).

Foster, who will stand down as head coach after the World Cup, has stuck with the majority of players who have come together in France, only swapping out Sam Whitelock for Brodie Retallick in the second row for a fixture he's had a good deal of success in.

South Africa may have crushed the All Blacks the last time the sides met but New Zealand had won the previous two engagements, sticking 35 on the world champions on each occasion.

And in a meeting of two evenly matched teams that know each other so well, it’s New Zealand that have the game-breaking talent that could win them a fourth World Cup.

Soggy conditions may limit scoring

Saturday's forecasts for Paris calls for rain on Saturday night, potentially leading to a return to the low-scoring Rugby World Cup finals of the past. 

The last two editions of the final have produced over 40 points but six of the seven before that stayed under the 40-point mark.

South Africa will want a low-scoring final and will be happy to rely on the boot of Pollard, who once again proved himself reliable under pressure in the semi-finals.

The Springboks have never conceded a try in a World Cup final or allowed more than 12 more points. Both those records could end on Saturday, although New Zealand are unlikely to run up the score in the wet conditions.

The All Blacks have shown a remarkable ability to bend but not break on defence in the knockout rounds and with South Africa seemingly taking a pragmatic approach, both teams will have to work hard for points.

Card-happy final?

Wayne Barnes is the man charged with trying to keep a lid on rugby’s biggest rivals and two teams that play right on the limit of what’s allowed. 

It will be the second time Barnes has refereed a New Zealand game during the World Cup knockout phase having officiated their win over Ireland when he carded two All Blacks. 

New Zealand also had a man go to the sin bin in the semi-finals, while there were three yellow cards and a red when these two nations last meet. 

Two of the last three meetings between the sides have produced two or more cards and while there’s never been a Rugby World Cup final to feature more than one card, referees are generally more encouraged to go to their pocket now.

New sports betting sites don’t expect there to be too many cards but they are worth considering with William Hill offering 19/10 on over 1.5 cards.

Chris is an experienced sports betting writer who has worked with most major bookmakers and national media outlets, such as Racing Post and ITN. He covers a wide range of sports with his favourites being NFL, rugby, football and Formula 1.