Newcastle Champions League predictions: How PSG, Dortmund and Milan can be beaten in Group F

Those watching the Champions League draw on 31 August held their breath when it came to pot four, based solely on which unfortunate club would land in Group F.

AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund and Paris Saint-Germain lay in wait, but there was not even enough time to work out just how these three European mainstays had been placed together by the time Newcastle United’s name came out.

At that point, they had a one-in-three chance of being put in Group F, and of course that is exactly what happened, handing Eddie Howe’s side one of the toughest-looking groups on paper the Champions League has ever seen – perhaps only outdone by Manchester City’s group of Dortmund, Real Madrid and Ajax in 2012-13.

Uefa’s rankings place French champions PSG fourth, Dortmund 13th and Milan a lowly 31st – which is what made this group possible – but with Dortmund narrowly missing out on the Bundesliga title last season and Milan making the Champions League semi-finals, it is a combination that almost defies belief.

And so in this their first Champions League campaign since 2002-03, Newcastle are seemingly up against it, although remarkably British bookmakers have them only behind PSG to win the group – odds of 9-4 likely influenced by a flurry of wishful punters.

But is there a modicum of truth in all this? Certainly at St James’ Park there is the prospect of points based on their opponents’ away form in Europe, and it means Newcastle qualifying for the last 16 is not as unthinkable as it seemed at first.

Play Newcastle at home 19 September and away 13 December

Christian Pulisic and Ruben Loftus-Cheek have come straight into Stefano Pioli’s side, the former Chelsea pair linking up with Olivier Giroud – who has four league goals already – to get Milan off to a fine start of three straight Serie A wins.

That progress was undone however in emphatic circumstances on the weekend, with city rivals Inter winning the derby 5-1 on Saturday to maintain their own perfect start. Milan had more possession but Inter were ruthless, capitalising on mistakes that Newcastle will hope are forthcoming in the Sandro Tonali derby on Tuesday.

Wishful thinking, perhaps, but Milan have only won four of their past nine home Champions League games, and come 13 December at St James’ Park, Newcastle will host a team who won just once on the road en route to last year’s Champions League semi-finals.

This is the fourth straight season Milan are facing English opposition:

• 2020-21: Lost 2-1 (agg) to Man Utd 2-1 in Europa League round of 16
• 2021-22: Lost 2-1 and 3-2 to Liverpool in Champions League groups
• 2022-23: Lost 2-0 and 3-0 to Chelsea in Champions League groups, then beat Tottenham 1-0 (agg) round of 16

Play Newcastle away 4 October and at home 28 November

The Champions League’s bridesmaids will be the first of this trio heading to St James’ Park on 4 October, and they could be unprepared for an atmosphere unlike anything seen in the North East for a fair few seasons – and that’s saying something based on Newcastle’s results last year.

PSG have only lost to Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Manchester City in the Champions League since 2021, and while it is undoubtedly the biggest test for Newcastle, it is the one they will relish the most. These are the moments you dream of, and while PSG have made the knockouts for 11 seasons in a row, their five last-16 exits in the last seven years have seen develop a reputation as Europe’s “bottlers”.

The French champions have also made a slow start in Ligue 1, losing 3-2 at home to Nice on Friday after two wins and two draws, giving new boss Luis Enrique much to ponder after the club shed Lionel Messi and Neymar in the summer.

Nevertheless, where there is Kylian Mbappe, there is hope. The France forward has seven goals in four league games already this season, and with Messi and Neymar no longer by his side, a reshuffle means he will have ex-Barcelona winger Ousmane Dembele and Gonçalo Ramos – the Portugal striker who joined from Benfica – for company up top.

Mbappe, Dembele and Ramos versus Dan Burn, Sven Botman, Fabian Schar and Kieran Trippier. Fetch the popcorn, will you?

Play Newcastle away 25 October and at home 7 November

Regulars to Champions League football, Dortmund have progressed beyond the group stages eight times since 2012-13, the season they lost the final to Bayern Munich.

Dortmund reached the last 16 last year despite winning just two of their six group games, while a record of two wins from their last seven away Champions League matches once more offers Newcastle a glimmer of hope.

And in the Bundesliga, after painfully throwing away the title on the final day last season, they have made a patchy start of two wins and two draws to leave them seventh – a 4-2 win on the weekend helped by an 82nd-minute red card for Freiburg and then two late goals.

The loss of Jude Bellingham would be a blow for any side, but Dortmund brought in former Manchester United loanee Marcel Sabitzer and signed Felix Nmecha from Wolfsburg to plug the gap – one that looks to have left them weaker than they were before.