NFL bets beat Vegas sportsbooks as 49ers help in Week 13

It’s been a remarkable run of favorites covering in the NFL lately, and Week 13 was no different, as bettors rode favorites going 8-3 against the spread to a winning week at several sportsbooks. Last week, favorites went 12-4 ATS in what was almost a record week for favorites covering — before the Minnesota Vikings lost 12-10 on Monday Night Football.

This week had a similar feel, as favorites went 6-1 ATS in the early window, including popular favorites like the Detroit Lions (-4), Los Angeles Chargers (-4) and Miami Dolphins (-8.5) winning and covering. The Pittsburgh Steelers (-6) losing outright 24-10 to the lowly Arizona Cardinals was a saving grace for many sportsbooks to help break up teasers and money-line parlays.

A massive decision for sportsbooks was the San Francisco 49ers (-3) dominating the Eagles 42-19. 49ers -3 was the most-wagered on side by total dollars at BetMGM sportsbooks, and the second-most bet side by total tickets. Included in those bets was a $300,000 wager on the 49ers -3 (-105) by a BetMGM bettor, which cashed easily.

“It was our worst Sunday of the year,” Adam Pullen, assistant director of trading at Caesars Sportsbook, told For The Win. “Heavier favorites led by the Dolphins covering early hurt. The 49ers have always been well-backed. When those teams are good, it’s never good for the Nevada business.”

“Some big decisions went our way today and some didn’t,” Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told For The Win. “The 49ers-Eagles game was huge for us.”

The Lions -4.5 was the most-bet side by total tickets at BetMGM sportsbooks.

“We lost a decent-sized decision on the Lions game,” Gable said.

At the Borgata in New Jersey, one bettor wagered $336,000 on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 against the Carolina Panthers. A late Panthers touchdown and two-point conversion made the game a 21-18 final … and a push for the bettor.

“Not a great day for the house, obviously,” John Murray, executive director at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook texted For The Win before the Packers-Chiefs game. “49ers, Rams, Lions were all big losers. I think the Steelers the game was the only one we won on. Maybe the Packers throw us a bone tonight, but it’s going to back-to-back ugly Sundays for sure.”

Sportsbooks were certainly helped by the Green Bay Packers’ 27-19 upset win over the Kansas City Chiefs, as 6-point underdogs. Sportsbooks had massive teaser and parlay liability from earlier in the day going to the Chiefs, and it would’ve rolled over to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Monday Night Football if the Chiefs had won.

“Depending on how this result goes tonight, Monday night could be one of the biggest liabilities in parlays this season,” Craig Mucklow, Caesars director of trading told For The Win.

The Sunday night game did sneak over the total of 44, but sportsbooks will definitely take the Green Bay win and cover.

And it certainly wasn’t doom and gloom at every sportsbook, as Station Casinos was one of the books with a winning day.

“Overall pretty much a break-even day with favorites going 8-2 against the number,” Chuck Esposito, sportsbook director at Station Casinos, told For The Win via text. “In an NFL slate dominated again by favorites, getting the Cardinals win really helped. Packers would be huge tonight if we can get a Green Bay win, it would be a winning day.”