NFL Betting Strategy: Home-Field Advantage (2022)

Home-field advantage (HFA) is the inherent benefit each team has when playing in their home stadium. Last season, league-wide HFA settled near 1.7 points. It is not unusual for individual teams to experience heightened periods of H FA.

Home-field advantage is a team's average margin of victory when playing in their home stadium versus on the road. The 2020 season has been omitted because games were played in mostly empty stadiums due to COVID-19.

Home-field advantage is not created equal. Some teams have punctuated their advantage in recent seasons.

Some teams on this list were among the worst in the NFL entering the 2022 season. The team's home-field advantage is a measure of their performance away from their home stadium. Robby Greer quantifies each team’s advantage in a similar manner and provides an interface useful for visualizing each HFA in relation to league average.

Oddsmakers believe each team's HFA is different from the actual market value. The H FA is calculated by scaling each spread line to an opponent's projected win total. A six-point favorite versus an 11.5-win team would be weighted near equal to a favorite of eight points versus a team with a win number of 8.

Browns games have been omitted from the data entirely as their futures market is still being established. This has some effect on calculating Market-Derived HFA for teams that will play Cleveland this season.

The new metric, Market-Derived HFA, is supposed to be useful in betting strategy on NFL games.

The Seahawks' Market-Derived HFA is less than one point. Seattle is getting too much credit for their reputation as one of the best home teams in the NFL. With star QB Russell Wilson's departure to Denver, this sustained confidence in Seattle's current H FA is especially alarming. Proceed with caution when betting on Seattle to cover the spread at home this season.

The Rams have a Market-Derived Home-Field Advantage of 2.69 at SoFi Stadium. Since 2017, the Rams' first season with HC Sean McVay, no team has experienced less of an advantage when playing in their home stadium.

The New Orleans Saints have a Market-Derived Home-Field Advantage of 1.48 points. Drew Brees' game declined during the latter half of the 2010s. The reputation of New York's Superdome exceeds its current advantage.

Houston Texans have a market-derived Home-Field Advantage. The Texans' HFA has been above league-average since 2017.

Green Bay Packers have had the best Home-Field Advantage in recent years. Since Matt LaFleur took over at the Packers HC in 2019, Green Bay has gone 17-7 ATS at home, covering by an average margin of nearly four points.

The Chicago Bears are projected to be among the worst teams in the NFL this season. The Bears had a +12-point differential ATS in home games last season, but their Market-Derived HFA remains in top third of the league entering the 2022 season and they have a Rolling H FA.

NFL Betting Strategy: Home-Field Advantage (2022) is measure of deviation in home vs. away spread lines over the past five seasons.

The Titans, Rams and Patriots have similar spreads in home and away games in 2022. Houston has the highest spread in the NFL.

The Titans, Rams and Patriots have similar spreads in home and away games. Houston has the highest Market-Derived HFA.

The 2020 season was not included in the data set. The extent of the influence of fans on team performance cannot be measured.