NFL Championship Sunday Best Bets

Everyone looks forward to Super Bowl Sunday. What happens today directly ties to that, as four teams battle in their respective Conference Championship games to decide who will play in the big game.

Although the Super Bowl is the big one, Championship Sunday has always been my favorite football slate of the year. Two games are better than one. And what's better than the two best teams in each conference squaring off on the same day? The only thing I can think of is making money while watching the action.

All of the odds listed are as of writing and subject to change. Shop around to find the best prices and numbers available.

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 O/U 45.5

When Trey Lance was carted off the field in Week 2 against the Seahawks, the 49ers felt okay having a quarterback like Jimmy Garoppolo as the experienced backup reclaim his starting role. However, he went down with a season-ending foot injury against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13. The 49ers then turned to the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Brock Purdy, and have yet to skip a beat. They come into the NFC Championship Game riding a 12-game winning streak.

On the flip side, the Eagles dominated and finished with the best record in the NFC while playing in the only division in football that saw three teams make the playoffs. Led by Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and a top-ranked pass defense unit, the Eagles will pose the most significant test to Purdy and the 49ers yet.

Brock Purdy Under 31.5 Pass Attempts (-105 BetMGM)

49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan is smart enough to realize he'd be playing right into the Eagles' defensive strength if he airs it out a ton with a rookie quarterback that, as everyone knows now, was Mr. Irrelevant in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The Eagles are the top-ranked pass DVOA defense in the NFL and, far and away, blew out the league with 15 more sacks (70 total) than the next-best team in the regular season. The 49ers should lean into their strength, which is their running game. Over their last three games, they have run the ball 54 percent of the time for 154.3 yards per game. Purdy is a great story, but when do the wheels fall off, especially under these circumstances?

The only concern I have with taking the under on this bet is the potential game script. If the 49ers fall behind by a lot and are forced to throw while chasing points, we are screwed. However, they are a very well-coached and balanced team. I expect this to be something other than a walk in the park for the Eagles. We shouldn't have to worry if the 49ers run the ball decently enough. (Play to 30.5)

Eagles -2.5 (-115 PointsBet)

As for the game itself, the Brock Purdy story seems too good to be true. College Football is totally different than the NFL, but remember how cool of a story Max Duggan of TCU was before the National Championship game against Georgia? I'm feeling some deja vu here. Sure, the 49ers are in the same class as the Eagles, but in this case, Duggan is Purdy and Georgia is the Eagles. It's not as if he's played that tough of a schedule, and he only needed 19 points to beat the Cowboys last week.

The Seahawks were a fraudulent playoff team, and his other victories in games he started, not including the Cowboys, came against teams with a winning percentage of .500 or below.

The Eagles are as complete of a team as any this year. As previously mentioned, they blew out the rest of the league with 15 more sacks (70 total) than the next-best team and ranked second in pressure rate (25.5%). Their defense features four guys with double-digit sack totals. Haason Reddick had 16 sacks, while Javon Hargrave, Josh Sweat, and Brandon Graham had 11 apiece. Daniel Jones was on a heater before last week's game. The birds brought him down for five sacks while hitting him eight times.

For all the talk about Purdy, we must remember the many offensive weapons that help him succeed. Kyle Shanahan knows how to get guys open in space. The list goes on and on, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk. Not to mention the midseason acquisition of running back Christian McCaffrey, who makes the offense go.

Offensively, Philly's strength is on the ground. The Eagles rushed for 268 yards last week against the Giants and finished the regular season fifth in rushing yards per game. The 49ers didn't allow a 100-yard rusher this season and held running backs to 3.3 yards per carry.

That said, the Eagles rushing attack isn't conventional. Jalen Hurts' ability to escape the pressure or keep it himself by design adds that extra layer. Philly takes care of business on home soil, and anything less than three points is worth a bet. 

Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 O/U 48.5

Bengals slot corner, Mike Hilton, coined the term Burrowhead, which made its way throughout the football world this week. Will Arrowhead Stadium be Burrowhead Stadium, or is this term a bad omen for the Bengals?

Isiah Pacheco Over 47.5 Rushing Yards (-114 BetRivers)

Let's start with the obvious. Pacheco has gone over this number in nine of his last 10 games. It's not even close. He's exceeded this number by at least 10 yards each of those nine times. He finished five yards shy of 100 yards in the Chiefs' Divisional round game against the Jacksonville Jaguars. Over the last 10 games, Pacheco averages more than five yards per carry and 72.8 yards per game.

Cincinnati did a good job stopping Buffalo's rushing attack. However, after falling behind early, the Bills didn't try running much, only handing the ball off to their running backs 11 times. The Bills elected to throw the ball 42 times in brutal snowy conditions. I'd expect the Chiefs to attempt more runs while Patrick Mahomes deals with a high ankle sprain he suffered last week. (play to 52.5)

Jerick McKinnon Under 3.5 Receptions (+130 DK & FD)

McKinnon has certainly had success in the receiving game. From Weeks 13-18, he went on a six-game stretch where he caught at least one touchdown pass in each game. He also has some big boom performances, like Week 14 against the Broncos when he caught seven passes for 112 yards and two touchdowns.

Nonetheless, he has failed to catch four or more passes in 13 of his 18 games this season. He must be considered a threat, and he'll likely make an impact at some point in this game, but the Bengals were one of the teams that limited his production. McKinnon caught a touchdown in that game but only went for two catches and nine receiving yards. We get plus money on a bet with a 72 percent cash rate. Although McKinnon played a season-high 65 percent snap share last week, he wasn't targeted. (play to 3.5 & +105)

Bengals ML (+115 PointsBet)

I don't have a strong take on a side for this game. The biggest key might be the actual health and mobility of Patrick Mahomes. In a game that I consider an unpredictable coin flip, give me the underdog, especially when they haven't lost to the Chiefs in the Joe Burrow era.

However, if the Chiefs and Eagles win, we'll get the Andy Reid Super Bowl against his former, so I won't be too upset. With everything on the line and this being a rematch of last year's AFC Conference Championship, this is a complete toss-up.

I just can't bet against Burrow at this point. Chris Jones, Frank Clark, and the gang could make life difficult on the Bengals' offensive line. That said, Burrow ranked in the top five in completion percentage (60.6) and passer rating (98.1) when pressured this season. In their Week 13 matchup, he carved up the Chiefs on 25 of 31 passing for 286 yards, two touchdowns, and a 126.6 rating. I think history repeats itself. Sprinkle a little on the Bengals.