Conference title game predictions: NFL's best four teams are final four teams

The best four teams are the final four teams in the NFL playoffs.

For the first time in league history, all four conference title-game participants enter with at least 14 wins – 15 apiece for Philadelphia, Kansas City and San Francisco, and 14 for Cincinnati. The upstarts have exited.

The Eagles and 49ers are the NFC’s top two seeds, and the Chiefs and Bengals are the AFC’s first and third seeds, respectively. The Bengals routed the second-seeded Buffalo Bills last week to break up the all-chalk bracket.

But this is the right bracket. The Bengals enter their rematch at Kansas City on an 11-game winning streak. The 49ers and Eagles were the class of the NFC over the last three months. And the Chiefs are in the final four for the fifth consecutive year.

Here are five things to watch (and a prediction) for Sunday’s games:

San Francisco at Philadelphia, 3 p.m.

1. San Francisco led the NFL in total defense (300.6 yards) and scoring defense (16.3 points) during the regular season, and would be the first team to lead in total defense and reach the Super Bowl since Denver in 2015 (the Broncos beat Carolina). On their current 12-game winning streak, the 49ers have allowed fewer than 20 points a whopping nine times. Coordinator DeMeco Ryans could be in line for the head-coaching post in Houston or Denver following the 49ers’ season.

2. Philadelphia’s defense was second in the NFL (301.5 yards) and led the league with 70 sacks. Four players had at least 11 sacks – only 19 players in the entire league had double-digit sacks. The Eagles will lean on their four-man pass rush to pressure 49ers rookie quarterback Brock Purdy. For example: Early in the season, the Eagles sacked Washington quarterback Carson Wentz nine times – seven four-man rushes and two five-man rushes.

3. Discipline will be the order of the day/night for the 49ers’ defense. Part 1: Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts expertly carries out hard play-action fakes to suck in defenders. His first two completions last week against the Giants were on play action – 40 yards to receiver DeVonta Smith and nine yards to tight end Dallas Goedert. Part 2: The 49ers’ edge players must stay in their lanes. On scrambles and keepers, Hurts almost always tries to get the edge (the opposite of Bills quarterback Josh Allen, who mostly heads up the middle of the field).

4. Purdy is 7-0 as the 49ers’ starter, making it more likely he will open 2023 as the guy with Trey Lance as his back-up (or the starter somewhere else). A win Sunday and Purdy will be the first rookie quarterback ever to start and win three postseason games. What to make of his first two playoff games? The key is no interceptions in 59 attempts. He threw for 332 yards and three touchdowns against Seattle, and then 214 yards (no touchdowns) against Dallas.

5. A guarantee: If the Eagles match last week’s rushing total of 268 yards, they are headed back to the Super Bowl. Obviously, don’t count on that happening, but the more effective Kenneth Gainwell (12 carries, 112 yards against the Giants) and Miles Sanders (17-90) are running it, the less Hurts will have to test his healing shoulder on designed carries.

Prediction: Eagles 27, 49ers 23.

Cincinnati at Kansas City, 6:30 p.m.

1. Since 2000, only three franchises have made consecutive Super Bowl appearances (New England 2003-04 and 2016-18), Seattle (2013-14) and the Chiefs (2019-20). The Bengals can join that group if they can beat Kansas City for the fourth time in two seasons. Quarterback Joe Burrow, who sliced and diced the Bills’ defense last Sunday, is 5-1 in his playoff career, one win shy of tying Russell Wilson for the most wins in a quarterback’s first three seasons.

2. The Patrick Mahomes Sprained Ankle Storyline lost steam when he was on the practice field Wednesday-Friday. An impressive recovery considering how his ankle was torqued in the first half of the Jacksonville game. But the Bengals should seize on Mahomes’ expected lack of mobility. The Jaguars, for some reason, didn’t send extra rushers to test Mahomes, and he was able to survey the field. Cincinnati can pressure with four players. Make Mahomes move laterally.

3. Two of the players we had the most fun watching this year on tape and in-person: Bengals receiver Ja’Marr Chase and cornerback Mike Hilton. Chase’s 513 postseason yards is second-most for a player in his first two seasons, and he has at least five catches for 50 yards in all six of his games. He has the downfield ability, but understands how to win on shorter routes and take advantage of off coverage to turn a short pass into a solid gain. Hilton, the Bengals’ nickel, is arguably the NFL’s best slot blitzer, able to use his speed and experience to find gaps in the protection.

4. The Bengals will do a better job covering Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce than Jacksonville … they couldn’t do any worse. Kelce roamed the field unchecked last week, setting a postseason tight end record with 14 catches (for 98 yards and two touchdowns). The yards-per-catch wasn't eye-popping, but what Kelce does is find an open pocket in zone coverage and use subtle-but-effective moves to get open against man coverage.

5. Can Kansas City do what the Bills couldn’t and expose Cincinnati’s re-built offensive line (three fill-in starters)? The Chiefs have a better chance because they have better personnel, particularly Chris Jones and Frank Clark. The Bengals rushed for 172 yards last week. Jones will see to that not happening. The Bills had only one sack of Burrow. Clark has 12 postseason sacks (fourth in league history since 1982).

Prediction: Bengals 34, Chiefs 27.