NFL divisional round betting notes
The top seeds in each conference will kick off their postseasons this weekend, as the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles begin their playoff runs. The Chiefs (7-10 against the spread) and Eagles (8-9) are the only remaining playoff teams with losing ATS records this season, including playoffs.
That hasn't stopped the Chiefs from being favored for their 14th straight playoff game, extending the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes will have been favored in all 12 of his playoff starts.
However, several of the underdogs this weekend have been covering at historic rates. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 8-5 outright as an underdog, tied for the most outright underdog wins by any team in a season during the Super Bowl era. The New York Giants are 11-2 ATS as an underdog this season, tied for the most underdog covers in any season in the Super Bowl era, including seven outright wins. However, no team has been hotter recently as an underdog than the Cincinnati Bengals, who are 8-0 ATS in their past eight games in that role.
Team notes
Jacksonville and New York are the only remaining playoff teams with a season win total that implied a losing record. Both had preseason Super Bowl odds of at least 100-1.
New York has the best ATS record this season at 14-4, followed by Cincinnati at 12-5.
Season stats
Road teams: 4-2 ATS this postseason, 137-133-7 ATS this season
Underdogs: 4-2 ATS this postseason, 145-120-7 ATS this season
Unders: 1-5 this postseason, 150-124-3 this season
Jacksonville is 8-5 outright and ATS as an underdog this season, tied for the most underdog wins in a single season in the Super Bowl era. It has only been an underdog of 7+ points once this season (+9 at Kansas City in Week 10; lost by 10). Jacksonville has won four straight games outright as an underdog.
Doug Pederson is 6-0 ATS and 5-1 outright as a playoff underdog. That is the most playoff games as an underdog by a coach without an ATS loss in the Super Bowl era.
This will be the 14th straight playoff game Kansas City is favored in, the longest streak by any team in the Super Bowl era. Patrick Mahomes will have been favored in all 12 of his playoff starts, the longest streak to begin a career in that span.
Kansas City is 2-10 ATS against conference opponents this season.
Mahomes is 3-0 ATS against Jacksonville, including a cover earlier this season.
Since 2020, Kansas City is 12-18 ATS as a favorite of at least seven points.
Since 2006, No. 1 seeds are 4-9-1 ATS in divisional playoff games as favorites of at least seven points.
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS off a bye, including playoffs, since 2020.
Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in its past six games.
New York is 14-4 ATS this season, the best mark in the league, including 11-2 ATS as an underdog (7-6 straight up). The 11 ATS covers as an underdog are tied for the most by any team in the Super Bowl era, including playoffs.
New York is 8-1 ATS on the road this season with five straight covers. Daniel Jones is 19-7 ATS in his career on the road.
New York has covered 10 straight games on short rest, including going 3-0 ATS this season.
New York is 17-5 ATS and 14-8 outright as a playoff underdog in the Super Bowl era. That is the most wins, the best winning percentage and the best cover percentage by any team as a playoff underdog in the Super Bowl era.
New York is 6-4 outright and 8-2 ATS as a playoff underdog of at least seven points, with four straight outright victories.
Philadelphia has struggled as a playoff favorite, losing each of the past four times it has been a favorite in the playoffs.
It will be the third meeting between these teams over the past seven weeks. In Week 14, Philadelphia won 48-22 and covered as a seven-point road favorite (over 44.5). In Week 18, Philadelphia 22-16 won but did not cover as a 17-point home favorite (under 43).
Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in its past four games and is 8-9 ATS this season.
Philadelphia has won nine straight home meetings, though New York has covered five of the past six meetings in Philadelphia.
Since 2006, No. 1 seeds are 4-9-1 ATS in divisional playoff games as favorites of at least seven points.
Cincinnati has covered eight straight games as an underdog, including playoffs, which is the longest active streak in the league (2-0 ATS this season). The past six times Cincinnati was an underdog, the game went under the total.
Joe Burrow is 15-7 ATS in his career as an underdog, including 13-2 ATS as an underdog of at least three points.
Cincinnati is 12-5 ATS this season, though it is 0-2 ATS in its past two games. Cincinnati is 12-3 ATS in its past 15 games.
Cincinnati is 15-4 ATS on the road since the start of last season, including 7-2 ATS this season, 7-1 ATS in its past eight games and 4-0 ATS in its past four away games.
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its past six playoff games (since 2015).
Buffalo is the only team to be favored in every game this season.
Four straight Buffalo games have gone over the total.
Buffalo is 3-7-1 ATS in its past 11 games.
Buffalo is 0-4 ATS in its past four games against teams with winning records. Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its past five games against teams with winning records.
San Francisco has won 11 straight games, going 9-2 ATS in that span, including 8-1 ATS in its past nine games.
San Francisco is 8-1 ATS as a home favorite this season (8-2 ATS overall at home), with six straight covers.
San Francisco is 6-1 ATS in playoff games under Kyle Shanahan, including 4-0 ATS since last season.
Brock Purdy is the second rookie quarterback since 2000 to be favored in a playoff game in the divisional round or later. (Dallas lost as five-point favorite in 2016 divisional round with Dak Prescott versus Green Bay.)
Dallas has lost seven straight playoff games as an underdog (2-5 ATS). Its last playoff upset was in the 1992 conference championship game against San Francisco (+4).
Dallas had been favored in 12 straight games entering this week, the second-longest active streak. This will be San Francisco's 11th straight game as a favorite. Dallas is 3-2 SU and ATS as an underdog this season.
Dallas is 13-5 ATS on the road since the start of last season.
