NFL Draft Odds 2024: Williams Pulls Away, Daniels Rises

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27 April 2023

NFL Draft Odds 2024: Williams Pulls Away, Daniels Rises

Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams is heavily favored to be the first overall selection by the 2024 NFL Draft odds across our best NFL betting sites.

Even though USC QB Caleb Williams has faded from the 2023 Heisman Trophy conversation after winning the award in 2022, the 2024 NFL Draft odds heavily favor him as the consensus favorite. Books remain convinced that the highlight-reel-filling signal-caller will declare for the draft despite his father saying as recently as late November that it was a "game-time decision."

Despite the USC Trojans slumping to a 7-5 record, the long-presumed No. 1 pick of the NFL draft has had a strong year, throwing 30 touchdown passes against five interceptions while completing 68.6% of his passes. He added 11 touchdowns on the ground, compiling 136 rushing yards on 97 carries.

Williams has opted-out of USC's Holiday Bowl game vs. Louisville as he continues to ponder his future.

Quarterbacks dominate the rest of the oddsboard, reflecting a clear need among the bottom feeders in the NFL standings.

Here is our look at the 2024 NFLDraft odds from our best sports betting apps.

NFL draft odds 2024: First overall pick

(Odds updated Dec. 5)

NFL draft betting analysis

We have interest in Drake Maye and Jayden Daniels as top quarterbacks on the oddsboards, with Williams' father fueling the fire by stating his son could return to school rather than declare for the NFL draft if a specific team gets the No. 1 pick. Heisman finalist Michael Penix Jr. was the third QB on the board for much of the season before being passed by Daniels in the last two weeks.

The hype surrounding the Colorado Buffaloes under head coach Deion Sanders faded as the season wrapped up. QB Shedeur Sanders spent most of the season hovering near the bottom of the top 10. Still, recent comments from Colorado coach — and Shedeur's father — Deion Sanders seem to lean toward the QB not entering the draft at all and returning to school.

Shopping around at sites with the best sportsbook promos is crucial for this market. FanDuel offers the best price on six of the top 12 contenders, while bet365 and DraftKings each feature a couple of other top options.

NFL draft odds movement

The NFL draft odds will become closer tied to the performance of college teams and players throughout the season and injuries will play a significant role.

Drake Maye remains the only true challenger to Williams through the end of the regular season, and even that gap has grown in recent weeks. Wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. spent most of the second half of the season with the third-shortest odds in the +2000 range, but Daniels joined him last week at DraftKings and passed him this week at FanDuel and bet365.

A new wave of quarterbacks rose toward the top of the board later in the season, although they've remained stagnant over the last week. Michael Penix Jr. held steady in the +5000 range despite being named a finalist and having the second-shortest Heisman Trophy odds, although he's as short as +3000 at DraftKings.

NFL draft odds 2024: First QB selected

Caleb Williams vs. The Field

FanDuel has posted a market for USC QB Caleb Williams versus the field. Any other player being the No. 1 pick of the draft would count as a win for the field.

Favorite to be No. 1 pick of the NFL draft

Caleb Williams (-300 via FanDuel)

In his first year at USC after transferring from Oklahoma, Williams secured the Heisman Trophy. He completed 66.6% of his pass attempts for 4,537 yards and threw 42 touchdowns against just five interceptions. Additionally, he contributed 10 scores and 382 yards on the ground.

His numbers tapered off this season, and the Trojans' 7-5 record wasn't reflective of his play. Williams completed 68.6% of his passes for 3,633 yards with 30 passing touchdowns against five interceptions.

There hasn't been a back-to-back Heisman Trophy winner since Archie Griffin in 1974 and 1975. However, many NFL teams already seem to have set their sights on Williams as the No. 1 pick. Our selections for finishing with the NFL's worst record in 2023 will lead that race.

NFL draft odds 2024: Contender

Marvin Harrison Jr. (+2200 via bet365)

Harrison is easily the No. 1 receiver in the 2024 NFL draft class. The Ohio State standout warrants an investment in case Williams declines to play for the NFL team with the No. 1 pick, and that club then opts for the best player available rather than a replacement under center.

NFL draft odds 2024: Long shot

Michael Penix Jr. (+5000 via FanDuel)

Penix was named a Heisman Trophy finalist but still had an excellent season and led the Huskies to capture the Pac-12 Championship. The Washington senior will turn 24 years old before NFL training camps open next summer, so he's likely to remain a fade in this market. But he could be an option to go higher than anticipated once prop markets surface.

NFL draft odds 2024: Fade

While he wasn't pushed into carrying games frequently for the CFP-bound Michigan Wolverines, McCarthy undoubtedly showed flashes of brilliance throughout the season and, at one point, was the frontrunner to capture the Heisman.

While McCarthy's accuracy is on point — he was fourth nationally with a 74.2% completion percentage — his volume was lacking. In two of his final five games, he threw 20 or fewer passes and connected for just one touchdown against one interception along that span.

There's no guarantee McCarthy will even be a first-round pick come draft day, especially with QB-needy teams looking toward Williams, Maye, and Daniels, to name just a few, before his name is called.