NFL playoff predictions: Picks, odds for Sunday, Monday Wild Card games
Dave Blezow makes his NFL Wild Card Weekend picks for Sunday and Monday’s games. All lines courtesy of BetMGM:
Sunday
BUFFALO BILLS (-13) over Miami Dolphins: Over 43.5
The teams split their two meetings in 2022 with the Bills winning by just three, 32-29, in Orchard Park on Dec. 18. Both of those games, however, featured Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback for Miami, the first of which being the infamous game when Tagovailoa staggered like a heavyweight in the 12th round.
Now the Dolphins are down to No. 3 QB Skylar Thompson, and even he is battling an ankle injury. This is a fairly low total for a Bills game, so I’m giving the Over a shot even though the Dolphins might not contribute much. Hoping we get a defensive or special teams score to help along the way.
Score prediction: Bills, 33-13
New York Giants (+3) over MINNESOTA VIKINGS: Over 48
You know how, when a good new restaurant opens in your neighborhood, you want to tell your friends — but you don’t want to see a glowing review in the paper or on the TV news because you don’t want it to become too popular?
That’s sort of the case here, as everyone and his brother seems to be picking the underdog Giants over the Vikings. Not going to lie, I’m a bit uneasy about that. We’ve been marveling all year about how the Vikings could have a negative point differential despite an excellent record. Somehow, 424 points for and 427 points against added up to 13-4, which means that except for a few blowout losses, the Vikings were winning all of the close games. Maybe how they got here isn’t such a bad thing.
Minnesota’s talent probably should beat the Giants by about two touchdowns, but that’s not all that’s at play here. The teams met on Christmas Eve day in Minnesota, with the Vikings’ 27-24 victory on Greg Joseph’s 61-yard field goal at 0:00 matching this current spread.
I mentioned in Saturday’s selections a coaching edge for the Jaguars vs. the Chargers, which certainly played out on the second half of that game, and I perceive there’s an even bigger one here with Brian Daboll and Wink Martindale matching wits with Kevin O’Connell. I really believe Daboll will find the flaws in the Vikings’ 31st-ranked yardage defense and stay one step ahead of Minnesota’s adjustments. The results should be points and possession, letting Justin Jefferson and Dalvin Cook see the field as little as possible.
Score prediction: Giants, 26-24
Baltimore Ravens (+8.5) over CINCINNATI BENGALS: Over 40.5
When I think of AFC North football, I think of close games decided on the final play. Lamar Jackson’s continued absence will leave the Ravens with Tyler Huntley and third-string QB, Anthony Brown, whose two interceptions and fumble returned for a touchdown were the difference in a 27-13 Bengals victory at the same site last week.
I believe this rapid rematch and third meeting of the season helps the sizable underdog, particulary when that team has John Harbaugh, the NFL’s No. 3 scoring defense and Mark Andrews. Also, remember, in last year’s playoffs the Bengals’ three victories were by seven points or fewer.
Score prediction: Bengals, 24-20
Monday
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (+2.5) over Dallas Cowboys: Over 45.5
Though it’s easy to throw shade at the Cowboys, they are the 12-5 team in this matchup against an 8-9 opponent. That’s what makes this such a tough game to select.
Way back in Week 1, the Buccaneers went into Jerry World and smacked down the Cowboys, 19-3. Dallas managed just 244 yards on 3.8 yards per play. Dak Prescott broke his thumb that night, but that was in the fourth quarter after the damage in the game was done.
The problem for the Bucs is they would post only one more win against a playoff team the rest of the way, that coming against Seattle, while the Cowboys have beaten the Bengals, Giants (twice), Eagles (though without Jalen Hurts) and hammered the Vikings, 40-3.
This pick comes down to three things — Tom Brady … at home … getting points.
Score prediction: Buccaneers, 24-23
Lock of the week: 49ers (Locks 9-9 in 2022-23)
Last week: 9-7 overall, 2-1 Best Bets.
