NFL predictions: Picks, player props for Week 6

We’re on to Week 6 of the 2023 NFL season, and there are plenty of interesting player prop options on the board once again.

Trying to find value with passing, rushing and receiving yards can be tricky, but there are enough matchup trends to where there’s usually at least five players that I feel offer value to either go over or under their yardage prop.

I’ve identified my top five player prop values for this week, which include a Derek Carr passing yardage prop, a Raheem Mostert rushing yardage prop and a T.J. Hockenson receiving yardage prop.

TOP FIVE PROP PLAYS

Passing top play

Saints QB Derek Carr OVER 215.5 yards (-127) at Texans

Carr hasn’t had the type passing season that the Saints were hoping he would be having up to this point, but he showed promise last week against the Patriots and appears fully over the shoulder injury that hampered him in Week 4. The Texans defense is inexperienced and has several injuries in the secondary to where Carr should be able to find success though the air in a matchup that could end up a shootout with the Texans offense being better than expected.

Rushing top plays

Dolphins RB Raheem Mostert OVER 68.5 yards (-101) vs. Panthers

The Dolphins lead the NFL in total rushing yards, and while rookie De’Von Achane has played a huge part in that, Mostert has also put up strong numbers on the ground. The Dolphins will have no choice but to lean on Mostert with Jeff Wilson Jr. likely being eased back into action coming injury, so Mostert should be able to rack up plenty of rushing yards with an increased workload against a Panthers defense that’s struggled mightily against the run.

Colts RB Zack Moss UNDER 45.5 yards (-117) at Jaguars

Moss has filled in admirably for Jonathan Taylor as the Colts lead runner, but his run as the workhorse will likely to come to an end this week with Taylor set to be a full go. Moss should still see some carries considering how well he’s performed this season, but a decreased workload and a tough matchup against the Jaguars makes the under the play here.

Receiving top plays

Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson OVER 54.5 yards (-117) at Bears

Hockenson has held steady as a go-to receiving option in a pass-first Vikings offense, and he should see even more receiving opportunities moving forward with star wide receiver Justin Jefferson on injured reserve. Kirk Cousins peppered Hockenson with targets even when Jefferson was healthy, so Hockenson should see plenty of receiving success this week in a soft matchup against the struggling Bears.

Jaguars WR Christian Kirk UNDER 61.5 yards (-117) vs. Colts

Kirk has had a solid season despite a rough Week 1, but that season-opening contest was against the same Colts team that he’s set to face this week. Kirk should see more than three targets in the rematch, but Calvin Ridley did so well in the first matchup to where Trevor Lawrence will likely lean on him again, and Evan Engram also outperformed Kirk in that matchup.