NFL Week 12 Betting: Stock Up! Stock Down!
The theme of the week is recognizing and appreciating the blessings in our respective lives. Well, it is inevitable that we come across a negative or two in our life while identifying those positives. Can we spin those negatives into positives?
Time for Stock Up! Stock Down! With the boys from Bet the EDGE.
Baltimore Ravens
John Harbaugh’s team sits atop the AFC North. Drew Dinsick (@whale_capper) likes their situation.
“I think this is very likely a Top 2 seed in the AFC. I think, you look at what they’ve accomplished to this point in the season and the fact that their defense is healthy and it’s playing at a level that is going to keep them in every single possible game, that definitely helps ameliorate some of the issues about the offense losing Mark Andrews.”
The star tight end and Lamar Jackson’s favorite target is out for the season due to an ankle injury. Sounds devastating, but Dinsick says all is not lost in Charm City.
“It’s possible that they weren’t getting to some of the stuff they wanted to do offensively. This is a very, very, very weak position, opinion, I guess, because Mark Andrews is obviously an incredibly valuable position once we get to the playoff time, but you know, I think it could open up some opportunity for the offense to continue to improve.”
Jay Croucher (@croucherJD) douses Dinsick’s optimism. He recognizes the Ravens are good but points out a few cracks in the foundation.
“It’s a strange team at the moment where Lamar, so his PFF Grade speaks to an incredible season. His efficiency stats aren’t as great just because he takes so many sacks and fumbles the ball, which is going to hurt them even more without the blanket of Mark Andrews.”
While he acknowledges Baltimore is among the elite in the AFC, he also has concerns about their defense.
“It is an excellent defense clearly but quietly they’re below average now against the run. Joe Mixon was able to put in work against them in the Thursday night game. Jerome Ford was able to go for 100+ yards on 17 carries on the ground. Then also Deshaun Watson did, with a fractured shoulder and a high ankle sprain, did complete 14 of 14 passes against the Ravens in the second half. So, I think that there’s going to be a lot on the Lamar’s shoulders.”
There may still be some value on Lamar Jackson to claim MVP honors (+350). The Ravens are out west this weekend in LA and are favored at DraftKings by 3½ against the Chargers.
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight weekdays at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.
New York Jets
Zach Wilson has finally been benched, but it looks to be too late for the 4-6 Jets as they get set for a date with the Dolphins on Black Friday. Tim Boyle gets the start under center, but he does so behind a banged up offensive line which is down another soldier (Becton) heading into the Miami game.
The Dolphins are now 10-point favorites at DraftKings Friday at MetLife Stadium against the Jets.
Drew Dinsick believes all the offensive woes have taken a toll on the other side of the ball for New York and that spells doom against a speedy Dolphins’ team.
“You’re getting an improving Miami Dolphins’ defense. You’re getting one of the fastest units on offense against a defense that is looks like they’re running out of a little bit of gas. The effort tanks are a little low for the Jets and I’m not sure the insertion of Tim Boyle gets those guys fired up to come out and give you a full heart perform. So yeah, a lot of warning signs the Jets are about ready to quit here.”
Jay Croucher piled on to Drew’s analysis.
“I think as well, there’s a pretty good chance Trevor Siemian is the best quarterback on the roster at the moment, which is kind of terrifying to say out loud, but it is what it is. I do think as well the Jets completely capitulating has ripple effects for other teams that are coming up on their schedule. Great news for Miami because this looks like it might be a difficultish game and now it should be a layup and the Dolphins play the Jets twice in the next month. Houston plays the Jets. That helps for the AFC South. Cleveland plays the Jets as well later in the season. That will help them on their way too.”
Before moving on in the pod, Dinsick revealed an interesting preseason ticket he holds which is looking better and better with each passing day.
“I have a pretty decent-sized stake on the Jets to be the fewest points scored this season. And while not exactly how you draw it up that Aaron Rodgers goes down in Week 1, it is very, very live right now. Jets, Patriots and Giants are going to be kind of neck and neck down the homestretch here and for that, I say thank you to putting Tim Boyle under center because I don’t think these Jets are getting out of single digits this week.”
As Dinsick noted, negatives can be spun into a positive…even if they carry with them a bit of a sweat at times.
