NFL Week 13 Best Bets: Taking the Broncos and Eagles as underdogs, plus a teaser

As most people around the country were shopping on Black Friday, I watched one of the most unbelievable sequences in all my years of watching football. That sequence, you ask? The end of the first half between the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets. If you recall, I had a bet on under 41 (closed 40.5) in that game but somehow, against all odds, those two teams decided to throw not one, but, two pick-sixes in the final 65 seconds of the first half. The second of which was on a Hail Mary as time expired. And yet, with 4:37 remaining in the fourth quarter, the game was still at just 40 points. That’s until Raheem Mostert scampered 34 yards to secure the over.

That was not fun.

It wasn’t a good week regardless, but I would have liked to lose that game more conventionally. That’s the NFL in the year 2023. As always with sports betting, it’s best to have a short memory and move on to next week.

Last week’s record: 1-3, -2.30 units

Season record: 31-32, -1.90 units, -2.9% ROI

A small card to start this week. I’m not sure if it will get larger as the week progresses, but there are a few plays on my radar if the market decides to cooperate. We are also trying to get back on track with our teasers as we’ve dropped two in a row after a streak of four winning weeks. Good luck to us!

Best Bets

Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys under 47.5 (-110)

The Cowboys are a top-three defense when it comes to playing man-coverage and Geno Smith is significantly worse against man-coverage than zone. Smith ranks 36th in EPA/Dropback against man-coverage this season, according to TruMedia. If Seattle is struggling to sustain drives, Dallas should be able to build a lead and slow their pace of play in the second half.

Worst line to bet: Under 47 (-110)

Denver Broncos +3.5 (-110) at Houston Texans

Right now, I think Tank Dell is more likely to sit this game out after not practicing on Wednesday due to a calf injury. Things could change, but I think it’s more likely this number will start to tick down towards a field goal. My model thinks the Broncos are a little underrated right now. Their early season defensive woes — mostly caused by injuries — have seemed to pass and Russell Wilson is playing some decent football right now.

Worst line to bet: Broncos +3.5 (-110)

Philadelphia Eagles +3 (-115) vs. San Francisco 49ers

To be honest, I’m not in love with this play, but the numbers are what they are, and I can’t pass this up. The Eagles are off two huge wins against the Chiefs and Bills so maybe they’re due for a let down or maybe it’s just hard to beat three of the best teams in football three weeks in a row. Luckily for us, they can lose by a field goal or less and we don’t end up with a losing bet. Jalen Hurts has a little bit of that dog in him and has been pretty good against almost every defense he’s faced this season. My biggest worry is if the Eagles defense can hold up against this potent Niners offense.

Worst line to bet: Eagles +3 (-115)

Teaser watch

I recommend playing two-team, six-point teasers at -120 odds, not higher.

Last week: 0-1, -1.20 units

Season record: 6-4, +1.20 units, +10.0% ROI