NFL Week 18 Falcons vs. Saints predictions: Odds preview, game and player props
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The New Orleans Saints and Atlanta Falcons will square off at Caesars Superdome on Sunday, starting at noon CT. The winner of this game will stay alive in the race for the NFC South and a chance for the playoffs.
Below, we highlight some betting picks for the game, as well as the best ways to wager.
Heading into Week 18, both the Falcons and the Saints are in a tight race for the NFC South title, with playoff hopes still alive. The Falcons, at 7-9, are looking to bounce back from a tough loss to the Chicago Bears and capture the division crown. To achieve this, they not only need to defeat the Saints in their upcoming rivalry game but also require the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose in their game against the league-worst Carolina Panthers.
The Saints, standing at 8-8 after a significant win over the Buccaneers last week, are also eyeing the division title. They need to win on Sunday and hope for a Buccaneers loss or tie to clinch their spot in the playoffs. This sets the stage for a high-stakes duel between the Falcons and Saints, where both teams have one eye on the Bucs-Panthers game, making for a suspenseful Sunday.
Should the Buccaneers triumph, the Saints’ hopes will then rest on a Wild Card spot via upsets by the Arizona Cardinals defeating or tying the Seattle Seahawks and the Chicago Bears beating or tying the Green Bay Packers. The Saints would also make it with a tie and losses by both the Seahawks and Packers.
A division win would see the Saints host a Wild Card game against either the Dallas Cowboys or Philadelphia Eagles, while a Wild Card berth could see them traveling to face Dallas, Philadelphia, or the Detroit Lions.
For the Falcons, who have been eliminated from Wild Card contention, their playoff aspirations are more straightforward but equally challenging. Their only route to postseason play is to beat the Saints and hope the Buccaneers lose.
The Saints, buoyed by home-field advantage and momentum, are poised to cover the spread against the Falcons. Their recent performance gives them an edge and their offense, ranking 15th in the NFL with an average of 22.1 points per game, can capitalize against a Falcons defense that allows 20.3 points per contest. More impressively, the Saints’ defense, which is sixth in the league and surrendering just 19.4 points per game, has shown remarkable improvement, particularly evident in their recent shutdown of Tampa Bay’s potent passing game.
The Falcons, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, averaging only 19.0 points per game. This weakness is likely to be exploited by the Saints’ robust defense. Furthermore, the quarterback situation for Atlanta, with either Taylor Heinicke or Desmond Ridder at the helm, poses a significant challenge. They face a top-10 Saints defense in most pass metrics, which could lead to critical mistakes and hinder the Falcons’ offensive flow.
The Falcons have not fared well as underdogs by three points or more this season, failing to cover the spread in such scenarios. In contrast, the Saints have covered the spread in three of their last four games, indicating a pattern of outperforming expectations.
Olave, with 84 catches for 1,067 yards on 135 targets, has been a consistent offensive force for the Saints, averaging 5.6 catches and 71.1 yards per game. His standout performance against the Falcons earlier in the season, where he secured seven receptions for 114 yards, showcases his ability to exploit their defense.
Statistically, Olave has exceeded 73.5 receiving yards in over half of his games this season, hitting the over in eight out of 15 games, and he’s surpassed his receiving yards prop bet in six out of 11.
The matchup against the Falcons is favorable for Olave. The Falcons’ defense, while ranked eighth in the NFL for pass defense, allowing 200.2 yards per game, is still vulnerable to a potent passing attack. The Saints, ranking 12th in the NFL with an average of 234 passing yards per game, are well-positioned to exploit this. Given the Saints’ relatively lower ranking in rushing offense, they are likely to lean more on their passing game, offering Olave ample opportunities to rack up receiving yards.
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