Falcons vs. Saints NFL Player Props, Odds: Picks & Predictions
The Atlanta Falcons visit the New Orleans Saints as the two division rivals conclude their season, and we're examining the matchup with our Falcons vs. Saints NFL player prop predictions for Week 18 based on the best NFL odds from the best sports betting apps.
There will be as much gazing toward the heavens to summon the powers of football gods above among Saints fans on Sunday as there will be glances toward the field or living room TV.
League rules dictate that a team needs to win the NFC South, and that remains a possibility for the 8-8 Saints, who have won three of their last four games. They would need the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose to the woeful Carolina Panthers, but the chance exists.
That means motivation won't be an issue in this contest, unlike in many games elsewhere around the NFL amid a wonky Week 18. Consequently, there's player prop value to pounce on now.
To accompany all of our Week 18 NFL predictions and NFL best bets, here are our best Falcons-Saints NFL player prop predictions for Week 18 (odds via our best NFL betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Falcons vs. Saints NFL player props: Week 18
Bijan Robinson Over 57.5 rushing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The path to beating the Saints' defense is clear: run. Run as if your employment depends on it, though Falcons head Arthur Smith is likely doomed regardless of the outcome on Sunday.
The Falcons are ill-suited to pass against nearly anyone while trotting out a bottom-tier passing offense. Taylor Heinicke is nursing an injury too but seems likely to play, and Desmond Ridder frequently face-plants. But the Saints pose an incredibly challenging test because of their ninth-ranked pass defense.
However, New Orleans comparably struggles against the run while giving up 122.5 yards per game (20th). The club is one game removed from allowing 104 rushing yards to Kyren Williams of the Los Angeles Rams, and the Panthers' duo of Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders combined for 161 yards in Week 14.
There's a vulnerability to exploit if the game script allows, and Robinson comes in hot while averaging 5.9 yards per carry over Atlanta's past two games. Add it all up, and it's easy to see why projection models widely favor the Over on his yardage total, including NumberFire going considerably beyond the number at 67.4 yards.
Be sure to make this play at bet365. There's nearly a consensus line across our best sportsbooks, but some are juicing it up to almost -120.
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Chris Olave Under 71.5 receiving yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
There's often been a disconnect between Derek Carr and, well, pretty much anyone, but especially his top wide receiver Chris Olave.
The wideout has been wildly inconsistent lately, and booming then busting in almost equal measure. He's posted three games with 100-plus receiving yards over his last five contests and two outings with fewer than 30 yards. That includes just 26 yards on three catches against the Buccaneers in Week 17, a team with the league's worst pass defense.
The difficulty level now rises dramatically. The Falcons come with so very many flaws, but that doesn't include pass defense. The team has given up the fourth-fewest yards and receptions to opposing wide receivers in 2023.
Olave did produce 114 yards against the Falcons in Week 13, but duplicating that could prove not easy against a quality pass defense, notably since his quarterback ranks 15th in air yards. The pass-catcher is also widely projected to fall below this number, with NumberFire forecasting 62.4 yards.
Once again, bet365 offers the best value, as most of our other best sports betting sites are pricing this prop at -115.
Derek Carr Under 240.5 passing yards (-110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Much of the same thinking applies here, though it's magnified given Carr's limitations. He's averaging a pedestrian 7.0 yards per attempt in 2023, down significantly from a peak of 7.9 during the height of his success with the Las Vegas Raiders.
Carr also ranks 18th in pass attempts traveling 20-plus yards through the air. He's not able to stretch the field with consistency, a weakness that won't play well against a defense not allowing much chunk air yardage, and giving up just 200.2 passing yards per game overall.
Stay away from FanDuel here, as its total of 232.5 doesn't align with the rest of our best live betting sites, which are all sitting at 240.5. And yet again, bet365 isn't forcing us to swallow nearly as much juice, with the price reaching -117 through Caesars.
Falcons-Saints player props made Friday at 9:46 a.m. ET.
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