NFL Week 3 Best Bets: Sides, Totals, and Props
NFL's Week 3 best bets are the sides, totals and props. The games are enjoyable but there are also some landmines and potential trap situations.
The Chiefs are the favorite against the Colts. The Colts are struggling on offense. Matt Ryan and the Falcons were held to a scoreless game by the Jaguars last week. The Chiefs rank sixth in DVOA against run and are leading the NFL in pressure rate (40.4%).
Buffalo Bills are the current AFC East leaders. They beat the defending Super Bowl champions and the Tennessee Titans each by at least three touchdowns. The Dolphins are undefeated and came from behind to beat Baltimore Ravens last week. Over the previous seven meetings between the two teams, the Bills have outscored the Dolphins by an average margin of 19 points.
Cincinnati Bengals are the favorite to beat New York Jets at home. The Jets won last week, but the Bengals have struggled to start the season. Bengals should win by at least a touchdown. Since 2010, teams that are 0-2 both straight up and against the spread are covering the spreads at a 62 percent clip in Week 3.
Jacksonville Jaguars are playing Los Angeles Chargers. The Jaguars beat the Colts last week 24-0. Justin Herbert is injured and the Chargers are without Corey Linsley and J.C. Jackson. Keenan Allen is also injured. Jaguars should win the game. They should also score at least 20 points. Jaguars play better football than Chargers in recent years.
Houston Texans play Chicago Bears. The game is being played in the windy conditions. Chicago lost to Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field last week. Houston Texans are favored by 3 points.
Las Vegas Raiders are playing against the Tennessee Titans. The Titans are struggling after losing Taylor Lewan. Both teams have injuries. Josh Jacobs missed practice Thursday and Friday, but he took a flight yesterday. The Raiders and Titans rank 23rd and 25th in pace of play. I think the Raiders pull it out. Under is my favorite bet.
Philadelphia Eagles are the fifth-fastest team in neutral game scripts regarding pace of play. Washington Commanders lost to the Detroit Lions last week. Wentz has played better than expected with his second team, the Commander. The Command will cover the large spread. The Eagles can run up the score and look like the better team to this point in the season. They have three cornerbacks in top 20 in coverage grades.
Derrick Henry was stymied by the Buffalo Bills last week. The Raiders are good at stopping the run, but they allowed five yards per carry to the Arizona Cardinals' running backs last time. Derrick Henry should be able to run the ball well against the Raiders.
Justin Fields has been ineffective in the first two games of the season. He needs to throw for more yards in this game. He should go over 167.5 passing yards. The game is in New York. It's a divisional game, so the odds are against him.
Devin Duvernay is set to play against the Patriots on Sunday. He's the team's third-leading receiver this season after Marquise Brown was traded to the Arizona Cardinals. Bill Belichick will try to take away the opposition's best weapons. Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman are the most likely candidates to be taken out of the game schematically. Duernay can go over 25.5 receiving yards with one or two catches.
Patrick Mahomes has four rushing yards on five attempts this season. He had at least 11 rushingyards in 15 of 20 games played last season, including the playoffs.
Leonard Fournette is going to go over 68.5 rushing yards against the Packers. The Packers have shown zero ability to stop the run this season. The analytics back up their struggles. I'll bet on Leonard FOURTH to score a touchdown.
