NFL Week 7 Odds: Best Spot Bets, Letdown Plays, and Look-Ahead Lines
The Cleveland Browns are in a prime position to disappoint after pulling off what might be the surprise upset of the season with their Week 6 win over San Francisco. Can Cleveland keep the good times rolling in Indianapolis or will this be a major letdown?
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The NFL schedule is starting to wear on teams. Just look at the "CVS receipt" stacking up on the injury reports for a number of clubs coming into Week 7.
Compounding those shallow depth charts are prickly stops in the schedule — also known as situational angles or spot bets. These are quirks in the calendar that could have an underlying role in how the results trickle out.
I comb through the current NFL odds slate and size up those spot bets against the Week 7 odds.
Letdown spot: Cleveland Browns (-2.5) at Indianapolis Colts
The Cleveland Browns gave us one of the biggest upsets of the 2023 NFL season, handing San Francisco its first loss as 8.5-point home underdogs on Sunday.
The status of quarterback Deshaun Watson is what drove that Week 6 spread so high to begin with and the Browns’ QB1 is "day-to-day" according to head coach Kevin Stefanski. Backup P.J. Walker wasn’t great in relief, but the Browns defense dug in and held the 49ers to just 215 total yards.
As it stands, Cleveland is just below a field goal favorite against the Indianapolis Colts, with a large letdown spot looming — regardless of who’s under center.
The Colts are also on a backup QB, with Gardner Minshew standing in for rookie passer Anthony Richardson. Indianapolis has a two-headed monster on the ground with Zack Moss and Jonathan Taylor, and its rushing defense has been above par (13th in EPA allowed per handoff).
Not only is there a potential letdown from knocking off the Niners but this trip to Indy is just the second road game of the season for Cleveland and first away trip since September 18.
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Schedule spot 1: Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
It’s been a busy fall for the Jacksonville Jaguars, who will be playing away from Duvall County for the fourth time in the first seven weeks this Thursday.
Jacksonville had a two-week stay in the United Kingdom for a pair of London games but didn’t get the usual corresponding bye week following the international appearance. The Jags were back on the field to beat Indianapolis at home on Sunday and now hit the road for a short week in New Orleans.
The players were already feeling the effects of the UK stay heading into Week 6 and the team altered its practice sessions and scheduling last week to help guys get back on Eastern time.
According to ESPN, there was an unnamed player complaining about how much his body was aching after the trip home and now an abrupt turnaround to play on Thursday could really put stress on the Jaguars.
The Saints, on the other hand, will be enjoying a home-field advantage for just the third time this season. New Orleans played a pair of back-to-back road stops with a Week 4 layover in the Big Easy.
Schedule spot 2: Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) at Seattle Seahawks
We usually have a "look-ahead" spot in this article, but there’s no situation that screams unfocused in Week 7. Thankfully, there are more than enough schedule spots to fill the void.
The Arizona Cardinals cap off their early tour of NFC West stadiums in Lumen Field this Sunday, playing their second straight divisional road game and third in four weeks after visiting SoFi and the Rams this past weekend and Santa Clara and the 49ers in Week 4.
The busy travel stretch comes at a rough time for the Cardinals, who have injuries on both sides of the ball for a roster that wasn’t very deep to begin with. Arizona dropped those first two divisional dances by a combined score of 61-25 and the spread for Week 7 is growing.
The Cardinals opened as touchdown underdogs in the Emerald City, but early play on the home team Seattle Seahawks has pushed this spread as high as Arizona +9 at some sharper online markets. The forecast for Seattle could also work against Arizona, with rain and cooler temperatures expected on Sunday.
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