Cleveland Browns vs. Indianapolis Colts: NFL Week 7 Odds, Lines, Picks & Best Bets
Browns-Colts Betting Preview
- Matchup: Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, Oct. 22 (Week 7)
- Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
Odds Summary
- Moneyline: Browns -180, Colts +150
- Spread: Browns -3.5 (-105), Colts +3.5 (-115)
- Total: Over/Under 40.5 (-110/-108)
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Subject to change.
The Cleveland Browns (3-2) are hitting the road for a midwest matchup with the Indianapolis Colts (3-3) in Week 7 of the 2023 NFL schedule.
The Browns (+3000 Super Bowl odds) did the impossible last week, knocking off the undefeated San Francisco 49ers without Deshaun Watson or Nick Chubb in the lineup. Their defense has allowed the third-fewest yards per game through five games since 1970, including just 143.8 passing yards per game.
They’ll face a Colts team (+15000 futures odds) that looked like it might be able to contend for an AFC South title but will now be without QB Anthony Richardson for the rest of the season due to a season-ending shoulder injury.
Let’s dive into the betting odds and best bets for this matchup.
Moneyline
Cleveland enters this game as a road favorite and is the better option on the moneyline.
The Browns’ defense has been excellent all season, especially against the 49ers last week. Their yards per game against (200.4) is more than 60 yards clear of the next-closest team, and they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points per game (15.4) to boot.
One of the most impressive marks of Cleveland’s defense is that it ranks 30th in turnovers per game. That means it’s getting stops the old-fashioned way and is better at forcing punts than turnovers.
For comparison, Indianapolis’ defense is 24th in points (25.3) and 26th in yards (357.2) allowed per game.
Unfortunately, the Browns’ offense has not been nearly as strong. Their 19 points per game ranks 21st in the league and is unlikely to improve until Deshaun Watson, who is currently questionable with a shoulder injury, returns.
If Watson sits again, P.J. Walker will take his place. Waler went 18/34 for 192 yards and two interceptions in his season debut last week, finishing with a 24.1 QBR.
The Colts are 11th in scoring (23.3 points per game) and average 24 points when Richardson’s replacement, Gardner Minshew, throws at least 10 passes. They’re also 3-1 in those games, including last week’s 37-20 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Minshew went 33/55 for 329 yards, a touchdown and three interceptions in that game. He has a 54.2 QBR (16th) on the year but is 30th in Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings.
Assuming Watson plays, Cleveland will have both the superior quarterback and superior defense in this matchup, making it a good bet to win outright.
Point Spread
With Watson trending towards playing after practicing fully on Friday, the Browns seem likely to cover the -3.5 spread.
Cleveland is 3-2 against the spread, while Indianapolis is 3-3. Both teams have covered in all of their wins and failed to cover in all of their losses.
Favorites are 47-41-5 (53.4%) ATS in 2023. Ironically, away teams are also 47-41-5 ATS, according to Covers.
Minshew is a respectable backup, but the Browns have held their own in matchups against Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson and Brock Purdy. They should tee off against a weaker opponent.
Cleveland needs to win by more than a field goal to cover, but that’s doable if Watson comes back and the defense plays up to its potential.
Over/Under
The total (40.5 points) is so low that the Over could be a sneaky play, especially if Watson plays.
The Under has hit in 60% of games so far across the NFL. That said, the Colts are 4-2 in favor of the Over, while the Browns are 2-3 despite their hellacious defense.
Cleveland’s defense is great but doesn’t force many turnovers and isn’t special at getting the quarterback on the ground (three sacks per game). The Browns also allow touchdowns on 66.7% of their opponents’ red zone entries, which is only 26th in the league.
On the flip side, Indianapolis offers very little defensive resistance (19th in rush defense, 23rd in pass defense). That should elevate the play of Watson or Walker on Sunday.
The Colts have proven they can score points with Minshew, and the Browns will get a huge boost on offense if Watson returns. Don’t expect great quarterback play in this game, but both offenses should have enough success to hit the Over.
Player Prop
One of the best player props in this matchup is Jonathan Taylor Under 42.5 rushing yards at -120 odds.
Taylor received one more carry than Zack Moss last week but lost the battle for touches 23-6 the week before. Taylor also has only 37 yards on 14 carries in two games combined and now has to go up against one of the best defenses the NFL has produced in decades.
At just 65.8 rushing yards allowed per game (tied for second-best), Cleveland’s defense is a brick wall for opposing running backs. This doesn’t feel like the best time to expect a breakout game from Taylor, so expect him to fall short of this prop again.
Photo by Jeffrey Brown/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images
