NHL Best Bets March 15th: Matthews makes his mark

March 14th recap: The Jets-Canes and Sens-Oilers games went over, and Kris Letang had four shots on goal, but Jakob Chychrun did not get the bump to the top power play unit, and William Eklund finished one shot short. It could have been much better, but it was still a positive night.

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3-2, +.29 units

*Odds as of 11am ET*

Avalanche-Maple Leafs OVER 6.5 Goals (-106, Pinnacle) Wager: 1.06 units to win 1 unit

Feels like there will be fireworks in this one with two teams with a ton of skill.

The Avs are coming off a game where they scored eight against Montreal. Meanwhile, Toronto has been running 11 forwards and seven defencemen, giving their star players more ice time to operate. 

These are the goal totals in the Leafs’ last three games: 7, 11 and 7.

In their lone meeting earlier this season, the Leafs beat Colorado 6-2.

Auston Matthews OVER 4.5 SOG (+110, DraftKings) Wager: 1 unit win 1.1 units 

Since taking a slap shot off his leg in Vancouver, Matthews has kicked his game up a notch. In his last three games, he has 27 shot attempts and 17 shots on goal. Maybe another matchup against a top player in Mackinnon will bring out the best in the Toronto superstar.

Islanders-Ducks OVER 5.5 Goals (-120, Sports Interaction) Wager: 1.20 units to win 1 unit

There are lots of trends pointing at the under here, but the Islanders will be coming in on the second night of a back-to-back playing their backup goalie Semyon Varlamov.

On Anaheim’s side, goalie John Gibson has shown he can still put up incredible 50-save performances; for the most part, he’s been quite bad this year.

Hit the over.

Rasmus Sandin OVER 0.5 Power Play Points (+310, DraftKings) Wager: 1 unit to win 3.1 units

Since coming to Washington in a trade with Toronto, Sandin has been given all the minutes he can handle on a depleted Capitals blue line.

Skating over 25 minutes a game, Sandin has nine points in five games, with two points on the man advantage. I’ll attack a Sabres penalty kill with the third-worst success rate in the NHL.

If Alex Ovechkin (lower-body injury) can play, that would be an even more significant boost to Sandin’s prospects.

Jakub Vrana OVER 0.5 Power Play Points (+530, FanDuel) Wager: 1 unit to win 5.3 units

Vrana has two goals, one coming on the power play in his first four games with St. Louis, skating on the top power play unit with the Blues.

The man advantage matchup isn’t great against Minnesota, but working in St. Louis’ favour is that Marc-Andre Fleury will start in goal, not Filip Gustavsson. This number feels too high for a guy with his ability and opportunity.

-Rob Wong (@RobWong34)

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